Douanes Niamey - Urana prediction 22 September 2026

The Douanes Niamey vs Urana prediction for this Ligue 1 fixture on Sep 22, 2026, points to a tight contest at 16:30. Our analysis gives Douanes Niamey a 40% chance of winning, the draw a 45% probability, and Urana a 15% chance. Bookmakers also see the draw as the most likely outcome, with odds of 1.91 for a stalemate.

Team Form

Douanes Niamey come into this match with mixed results. Their last five outings produced two wins, two defeats and one draw (L, D, W, L, W). At home, they were dominant in recent matches—demolishing As Zam 5-0 and Asn Nigelec 4-0. Away from home, they struggled, losing 2-0 to AS Fan and 2-1 to ASGNN. Urana have been inconsistent, managing just one win in their last five (L, D, W, L, D). Their only victory was a 1-0 away result at ASGNN, but they have struggled to score consistently, most recently losing 1-0 to Sahel SC and drawing 0-0 with Olympic Niamey.

Head-to-Head Record

The history between Douanes Niamey and Urana is short but clear. The two meetings both took place at Douanes Niamey, with the hosts winning 1-0 on Mar 3, 2024, and playing a 0-0 draw on Apr 21, 2025. Urana have never beaten Douanes Niamey, failing to score in both encounters. The head-to-head record is 1 win and 1 draw for Douanes Niamey, giving them a psychological edge.

Win Probability: Douanes Niamey or Urana?

We calculate the win probability for each outcome using raw odds, recent form and head-to-head data. After removing the bookmaker margin, the true probabilities are: Douanes Niamey win 40%, draw 45%, Urana win 15%. The draw is the single most likely result, reflecting the low-scoring nature of previous meetings and Urana's defensive approach away from home. However, Douanes Niamey has a significantly higher chance of victory than Urana, thanks to their strong home form and positive H2H record. The 40% home win probability makes Douanes Niamey the favourite if a winner emerges.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for the match are: Home (Douanes Niamey) 2.30, Draw 1.91, Away (Urana) 6.00. These bookmaker odds strongly back the draw as the most probable result, with a home win also considered plausible. Based on the stats and calculated probabilities, our Douanes Niamey vs Urana prediction is a low-scoring draw. The 45% chance of a stalemate is hard to ignore, though Douanes Niamey could edge it if they replicate their recent home performances. A bet on the draw or a cautious home win for Douanes Niamey looks the most sensible approach.