Japan - Uruguay prediction 24 September 2026

This Japan vs Uruguay prediction covers the Friendly International match on September 24, 2026 at 11:05. Based on odds, form and head-to-head data, Japan are the favorite with a 52% win probability, the draw is at 28%, and Uruguay have a 20% chance of winning. The analysis below explains the betting tips, odds and match outcome.

Team Form

Japan's last five results are L, D, W, D, W. In that sequence they lost 2-1 to Brazil in the World Cup on June 29, 2026, drew 1-1 with Sweden on June 26, beat Tunisia 4-0 on June 21, drew 2-2 with the Netherlands on June 14, and beat Iceland 1-0 in a Friendly International on May 31. That gives Japan two wins, two draws and one defeat, with nine goals scored in the five games.

Uruguay's last five results are L, D, D, D, D. They lost 1-0 to Spain in the World Cup on June 27, 2026, drew 2-2 with Cape Verde on June 21, drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia on June 15, drew 0-0 with Algeria in a Friendly International on March 31, and drew 1-1 with England on March 27. Uruguay are winless in that stretch, with four draws and one defeat, which is a major factor in this Japan vs Uruguay prediction.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record shows one Japan win, two draws and zero Uruguay wins in the last three meetings. Japan won 4-3 on October 16, 2018, the teams drew 2-2 on June 21, 2019, and Japan drew 1-1 on March 24, 2023. Japan have not lost to Uruguay in these three matches, and two of the three ended level, so the H2H edge belongs to Japan.

League Table Positions

This is a Friendly International, so there are no domestic league table positions, points, or gaps to compare. The match is not part of a league campaign, and team form plus H2H record are more relevant for this fixture.

Win Probability: Japan or Uruguay?

The base calculation from the main 1X2 odds produces implied probabilities of about 39.7% for Japan, 38.0% for the draw, and 22.3% for Uruguay after removing the bookmaker margin. Japan's home advantage, better recent form and unbeaten H2H run justify an upward adjustment to Japan's chances.

Final win probability for this Japan vs Uruguay match: Japan 52%, draw 28%, Uruguay 20%. The percentages total 100%. Japan are the more likely winner, but Uruguay's four draws in five games keep the draw probability relatively high.

Japan vs Uruguay Prediction: Odds & Match Prediction

The main 1X2 odds show Japan at 2.00-2.05, the draw at 2.08-2.15, and Uruguay at 3.40-3.80. Bookmakers see Japan as the favorite, but the close draw odds reflect how competitive Uruguay can be defensively.

Final Japan vs Uruguay prediction: Japan to win is the most probable match outcome. Based on the stats, the primary betting tip is Japan to win, with the draw as the riskier alternative because Uruguay are draw-heavy but lack wins.