Valencia - Villarreal prediction 24 October 2026

Valencia vs Villarreal prediction: Villarreal enters this Primera clash as the favorite with a 38% win probability, while Valencia has a 27% chance and a draw sits at 35%. The match kicks off on Oct 24 at 17:30 at the Mestalla stadium in Valencia.

Team Form

Valencia's recent form has been inconsistent. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses:

• 0-0 draw vs Athletic Bilbao (Oct 17)
• 2-2 draw vs Racing Santander (Oct 11)
• 2-3 loss vs Real Sociedad (Sep 20)
• 1-0 win vs Alaves (Sep 15)
• 0-1 loss vs Sevilla (Sep 11)

Villarreal, on the other hand, has been in stronger form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings:

• 0-0 draw vs Elche (Oct 17)
• 3-1 win vs Napoli (Champions League, Oct 13)
• 0-1 loss vs Real Madrid (Oct 10)
• 3-1 win vs Levante UD (Sep 20)
• 3-1 win vs Malaga (Sep 17)

Villarreal's attack has been firing, scoring three goals in three of those matches, while Valencia has struggled to find consistency.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides is tightly balanced: Valencia has 14 wins, Villarreal 13, and 5 draws in 32 meetings. However, recent encounters favor Villarreal. In the last five matches:

• Feb 22, 2026: Villarreal 2-1 Valencia
• Oct 25, 2025: Valencia 0-2 Villarreal
• Feb 15, 2025: Villarreal 1-1 Valencia
• Mar 17, 2024: Villarreal 1-0 Valencia
• Jan 2, 2024: Valencia 3-1 Villarreal

Villarreal has won three of the last five, including a 2-0 victory at Mestalla in October 2025.

League Table Positions

In the Primera standings, Villarreal sits 12th with 9 points from 9 matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). Valencia is outside the top 12, indicating a lower position. Neither side appears in the top 8 of the home or away standings, but Villarreal's overall record is slightly better.

Win Probability: Valencia or Villarreal?

Based on bookmaker odds and adjusted for recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the win probabilities are:

• Valencia win: 27%
• Draw: 35%
• Villarreal win: 38%

The odds implied a tight contest with the draw as the most likely single outcome, but Villarreal's superior form (3 wins in 5) and recent H2H dominance tilt the balance in their favor. Valencia's home struggles and Villarreal's away wins make the visitors the more probable winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds (1X2) from one of the listed markets show Valencia at 2.88, a draw at 2.30, and Villarreal at 2.62. These odds reflect the expectation of a close match, with the draw priced as the most likely result. However, our Valencia vs Villarreal prediction leans toward an away win. Considering the stats, Villarreal is the more likely winner, but a draw remains a strong possibility. Betting tips would point to a Villarreal win or draw double chance as a sensible option.