Vanlose - Nykobing FC prediction 21 October 2026

Our Vanlose vs Nykobing FC prediction for the Denmark Cup match on Oct 21, 2026, gives Nykobing FC a 55% win probability, with Vanlose at 15% and a draw at 30%. The bookmakers' odds and the head-to-head record clearly point to an away victory, but Vanlose's recent resilience could force a stalemate.

Team Form

Vanlose come into this Cup tie with a string of draws. Their last five results in the 3rd Division read D, D, W, D, D. The only win was a 1-0 away at Sundby BK on Oct 3. They have drawn four of those five, including a 0-0 at home to Holbaek and a 2-2 at Naesby. Vanlose are hard to beat but lack a cutting edge in the final third.

Nykobing FC, competing in the 2nd Division, have shown more variety. Their last five: L, W, D, D, W. The 3-2 loss at Fremad Amager on Oct 16 ended a four-game unbeaten run. Before that, they beat VSK Aarhus 3-1 and HIK Hellerup 3-0, with draws at Naestved BK and Brabrand IF. Nykobing score freely and have the firepower to trouble Vanlose.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Nykobing FC. In six previous meetings, Vanlose have never won, with three draws and three Nykobing victories. The most recent clash, on Jun 13, 2026, ended in a 5-1 home win for Nykobing in the 3rd Division. The last four encounters all took place in the 3rd Division, with Nykobing winning three and drawing one. Vanlose's only positive result was a 2-2 draw at home in August 2025.

Win Probability: Vanlose or Nykobing FC?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and the division gap, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Vanlose win: 15%
• Draw: 30%
• Nykobing FC win: 55%

The odds imply a strong away favourite, and the historical dominance of Nykobing (three wins, no defeats) reinforces that. Vanlose's recent form (four draws in five) suggests they can hold on, but their inability to beat Nykobing in six attempts makes an away win the most likely outcome. The division difference—Nykobing in the 2nd Division, Vanlose in the 3rd—adds further weight to the visitors' chances.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match odds (1X2) for this fixture show Nykobing FC as the clear favourite. One leading bookmaker offers 5.00 for a Vanlose home win, 2.50 for the draw, and 1.91 for an away win. These odds translate to an implied probability of around 46% for Nykobing, but after adjusting for the bookmaker margin and factoring in the head-to-head and form, we see the true probability closer to 55%.

Our Vanlose vs Nykobing FC prediction is an away win. The stats point to Nykobing's superiority, but Vanlose's stubborn defence could keep the scoreline tight. A 2-1 or 1-0 away victory is the most plausible match outcome.