Stord - Vard Haugesund prediction 3 October 2026
Stord
Vard Haugesund
AustevollStordStordGneistVareggStordStordVard HaugesundFyllingsdalenStordStordDjerv 1919AskoyStordStordFanaFordeStordStordAasane Fotball 2Os TurnStordBrann 2StordStordAskoyAasane Fotball 2StordVard HaugesundStordFyllingsdalenVard HaugesundVard HaugesundAskoyStordVard HaugesundVard HaugesundFanaSogndal 2Vard HaugesundVard HaugesundFordeBrann 2Vard HaugesundVard HaugesundOs TurnVard HaugesundHaugesundAustevollVard HaugesundVard HaugesundDjerv 1919GneistVard HaugesundVard HaugesundSogndal 2VareggVard HaugesundVard HaugesundAustevollStordVard HaugesundVard HaugesundStordStordVard HaugesundVard HaugesundStord| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Asker | 25 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 89:36 | +53 | 67 |
| 2 |  Heming | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 66:40 | +26 | 50 |
| 3 |  Gamle Oslo FK | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 73:46 | +27 | 45 |
| 4 |  Ready | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 63:48 | +15 | 42 |
| 5 |  Valerenga 2 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 54:63 | -9 | 40 |
| 6 |  Baerum | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 68:48 | +20 | 39 |
| 7 |  Union Carl Berner | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 45:41 | +4 | 38 |
| 8 |  Frigg | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 53:62 | -9 | 33 |
| 9 |  Lokomotiv Oslo | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 48:72 | -24 | 29 |
| 10 |  Kfum 2 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 51:64 | -13 | 28 |
| 11 |  Grei | 25 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 48:73 | -25 | 28 |
| 12 |  Ullern | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 49:62 | -13 | 26 |
| 13 |  Nordstrand | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 36:60 | -24 | 20 |
| 14 |  Konnerud | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 40:68 | -28 | 17 |
Stord vs Vard Haugesund Prediction (Oct 3)
Stord vs Vard Haugesund prediction for the 3rd Division match on Oct 3, 2026, points to an away win. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Vard Haugesund has a 55% chance of winning, while Stord sits at 20% and the draw at 25%. The match kicks off at 12:00 in Norway's fourth tier.
Team Form
Stord's recent results show inconsistency. In their last five matches, they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses. The sequence reads: a 2-1 away win at Fyllingsdalen, a 3-4 home defeat to Djerv 1919, a 3-3 draw at Askoy, a 3-5 home loss to Fana, and a 1-1 draw at Forde. Defensively, they conceded 14 goals in those five games, an average of 2.8 per match.
Vard Haugesund, by contrast, are in strong form. Their last five outings produced three wins, one draw, and one loss: a 3-2 home win over Fana, a 4-2 away win at Sogndal 2, a 9-0 home thrashing of Forde, a 4-4 draw at Brann 2, and a 1-2 home loss to Os Turn. They have scored 21 goals in that span, highlighting a potent attack.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favours the away side. In three previous meetings, Vard Haugesund have won all three, with Stord yet to register a win or a draw. The most recent clash on May 22, 2026, ended 4-1 to Vard Haugesund. Earlier encounters in 2019 saw Vard Haugesund win 4-1 away and 3-0 at home. The aggregate score across the three matches is 11-2.
League Table Positions
Neither Stord nor Vard Haugesund appear in the provided league standings for the 3rd Division, so a direct positional comparison cannot be made. However, given Vard Haugesund's dominant H2H record and recent form, they are likely to be placed significantly higher in the division.
Win Probability: Stord or Vard Haugesund?
After analysing all available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Stord 20%, draw 25%, Vard Haugesund 55%. The base probabilities were derived from the bookmaker odds (home 3.75, draw 3.20, away 1.85), which implied a 48% chance for an away win after removing the margin. We then adjusted upwards for Vard Haugesund due to their superior form (three wins in five) and a perfect head-to-head record of three wins from three, including a 4-1 victory earlier this season. Stord's home advantage is offset by their leaky defence and poor H2H results. The conclusion is clear: Vard Haugesund are the most likely winners.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers make Vard Haugesund the clear favourites. The best available odds in the data are: Stord win at 4.10, draw at 4.60, and Vard Haugesund win at 1.50. The more balanced set shows 3.75 for a home win, 3.20 for the draw, and 1.85 for an away win. Based on the stats, the prediction is an away victory for Vard Haugesund. The high-scoring nature of their recent matches also suggests over 2.5 goals could be a sensible betting tip.
Stord vs Vard Haugesund โ FAQ
- Who will win Stord vs Vard Haugesund?
- Vard Haugesund are the favourites to win. Our analysis gives them a 55% chance, while Stord have a 20% chance and the draw is at 25%. This is based on odds, a dominant head-to-head record, and much stronger recent form.
- What is the win probability for Vard Haugesund?
- Vard Haugesund have a 55% probability of winning. This figure comes from normalised bookmaker odds (which implied 48%) adjusted upwards due to their three consecutive H2H wins and a run of three victories in their last five matches.
- When is the Stord vs Vard Haugesund match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, at 12:00 local time. It is a 3rd Division fixture in Norway.
- What are the odds for the match?
- According to the available data, one bookmaker offers odds of 3.75 for a Stord win, 3.20 for the draw, and 1.85 for a Vard Haugesund win. Other bookmakers have the away win as low as 1.50.
- What is the head-to-head record between Stord and Vard Haugesund?
- Vard Haugesund have won all three previous meetings. The scores were 4-1 (May 2026), 4-1 (Sep 2019), and 3-0 (Jun 2019). Stord have never beaten Vard Haugesund.