Varnamo - Sandvikens IF prediction 24 October 2026

The Varnamo vs Sandvikens IF prediction for October 24, 2026, points to a very tight Superettan contest where the bookmakers' favorite Varnamo is far from a sure thing. Playing at home in the Swedish second tier, Varnamo enters with a 30% win probability according to our data‑driven model, while Sandvikens IF also holds 30%, and a draw comes in at 40%. The match kicks off at 12:00 local time.

Team Form

Varnamo have been a classic Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde side. Their overall last five matches returned three wins and two losses (W‑L‑W‑L‑W), but the deeper story is split by venue. In those five games, Varnamo played two at home and lost both: 1‑2 against Falkenbergs FF and 1‑3 against Osters IF. Their three away outings were all victories, beating GIF Sundsvall 1‑0, Oddevold 2‑1, and United IK Nordic 4‑2. That away brilliance contrasts sharply with a dire home record of just two wins all season.

Sandvikens IF arrive with a mixed bag: D‑L‑W‑W‑D from their last five (ignoring a friendly win over GIF Sundsvall, the Superettan form reads D‑L‑W‑D). Their last two away games in the league were a 2‑3 defeat at Landskrona BoIS and a 1‑1 draw at Brage – no wins on the road. Those numbers hint at two sides both uncomfortable in their current roles: Varnamo at home and Sandvikens IF away.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The head‑to‑head history between these clubs is based on a single meeting. On April 18, 2026, Varnamo traveled to Sandvikens IF and won 1‑0 in the Superettan. That away victory gives Varnamo a psychological edge, but it offers little to gauge how they will perform at home against the same opponent.

League Table Positions

In the Superettan table, Sandvikens IF (listed as Sandviken in the standings) sit 9th with 35 points from 27 matches (9W‑8D‑10L, goals 43‑38), while Varnamo are 11th with 32 points (9W‑5D‑13L, 35‑47). The three‑point gap and better goal difference give the visitors a slight upper hand on paper.

Home/away splits expose the weaknesses. Varnamo have played 13 home games with a terrible 2‑5‑6 record – the third‑worst home tally in the league. Sandvikens IF have collected only 13 points in 13 away games (3W‑4D‑6L), meaning this fixture pits a poor home side against a poor travelling side.

Win Probability: Varnamo or Sandvikens IF?

We calculate the chances as follows: Varnamo win 30%, draw 40%, Sandvikens IF win 30% (total 100%). The starting point was the bookmaker odds – 1.95 home, 2.42 draw, 3.45 away – which after removing the margin gave an initial 42‑34‑24% split. Those numbers were then heavily adjusted because Varnamo have won only 2 of 13 home matches (15% win rate) while Sandvikens IF have won 3 of 13 away (23%). Two struggling records in the key setting push the draw probability way up and make a home favourite a shaky proposition.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Varnamo as the favourite, with best odds of 1.95 for a home win, 2.42 for the draw, and 3.45 for an away victory. However, the stats tell a different story: Varnamo’s home form is abysmal, and Sandvikens IF’s away form offers little confidence either. Considering the H2H, league positions, and the home/away splits, the data points toward a stalemate. Our prediction therefore is a draw, with the 40% probability backed by the numbers, though a narrow win either way would not be a huge surprise.