Atletico La Paz - Venados FC prediction 3 October 2026
Atletico La Paz
Venados FC
Tampico MaderoAtletico La PazAtletico La PazTlaxcala FCCD TapatioAtletico La PazAtletico La PazVenados FCAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazCorrecaminos UATLeones Negros UDGAtletico La PazAtletico La PazMineros de ZacatecasCancun FCAtletico La PazAtletico La PazCruz Azul HidalgoAtletico La PazPiratas VeracruzCD Tepatitlan de MorelosAtletico La PazAtletico La PazAlacranes de DurangoAtletico MoreliaAtletico La PazAtletico La PazTampico MaderoVenados FCAlacranes de DurangoCancun FCVenados FCVenados FCLeones Negros UDGAtletico La PazVenados FCVenados FCAtletico MoreliaPiratas VeracruzVenados FCVenados FCCD Tepatitlan de MorelosTampico MaderoVenados FCTlaxcala FCVenados FCVenados FCDorados de SinaloaMineros de ZacatecasVenados FCVenados FCCD TapatioCruz Azul HidalgoVenados FCCruz Azul HidalgoVenados FCVenados FCAlebrijes de OaxacaAtletico La PazVenados FCAtletico La PazVenados FCVenados FCAtletico La PazVenados FCAtletico La PazVenados FCAtletico La PazVenados FCAtletico La PazAtletico La PazVenados FCVenados FCAtletico La Paz| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 33:18 | +15 | 27 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 31:19 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 |  Atletico Morelia | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 25:16 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas Veracruz | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 26:14 | +12 | 24 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 31:25 | +6 | 24 |
| 6 |  Cancun FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 26:18 | +8 | 22 |
| 7 |  Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18:14 | +4 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 27:27 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 14:25 | -11 | 19 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 18 |
| 11 |  CD Tapatio | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 24:27 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos UAT | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21:24 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 |  Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 23:29 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 |  Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15:23 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17:22 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 |  CD Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10:41 | -31 | 7 |
Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC Prediction (Oct 3)
The Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC prediction for this Liga de Expansion MX clash on Oct 3, 2026, points towards a home victory. Based on the latest form, league standings, and head-to-head record, Atletico La Paz enters the match as the clear favorite with a calculated 55% win probability, while Venados FC holds just a 20% chance of causing an upset.
Team Form
Atletico La Paz comes into this fixture in excellent shape, boasting a recent record of four wins and one draw in their last five matches (W, W, D, W, W). They have been prolific in front of goal, scoring 3 goals in three of those five outings, including a 3-0 home victory against Mineros de Zacatecas on Sep 5 and a 3-1 away win at Alebrijes de Oaxaca on Sep 25.
Venados FC, in contrast, has struggled for consistency. Their last five results show two wins and three losses (W, L, W, L, L). While they managed an impressive 5-0 home win over CD Tepatitlan de Morelos on Sep 13, their away form has been a major concern, with defeats at Piratas Veracruz (2-1), Tampico Madero (4-3), and Tlaxcala FC (3-1) highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record between these two sides is perfectly balanced. In 7 previous meetings, both Atletico La Paz and Venados FC have recorded 3 wins each, with 1 draw. The most recent encounter saw Atletico La Paz secure a 1-0 home victory on Jan 31, 2026. Interestingly, the home team has won four of the last five H2H matches, suggesting a strong home advantage in this fixture.
League Table Positions
Atletico La Paz sits 2nd in the Liga de Expansion MX overall standings with 20 points from 10 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 23 goals and conceded just 11. Venados FC is down in 9th place with 13 points from 9 games (4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), having conceded 19 goals. The 7-point gap and significant goal difference underline the gulf in class this season.
Win Probability: Atletico La Paz or Venados FC?
After a detailed analysis of the available data, the win probabilities for this match are: Atletico La Paz has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Venados FC has a 20% chance. This calculation is based on the implied probabilities from the best available bookmaker odds, adjusted for the home team's superior recent form (unbeaten in 5), their 2nd-place standing, and Venados FC's poor away record. The head-to-head trend of home dominance further supports the high probability of a home win.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers heavily favor Atletico La Paz, with the best available odds for a home win at 1.55. The draw is priced around 4.10, while an away win for Venados FC is as high as 4.75. These odds reflect the strong likelihood of a home victory. Based on the stats, the prediction is a win for Atletico La Paz, who have the quality and momentum to secure all three points against a struggling Venados FC side.
Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC โ FAQ
- Who will win Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC?
- Atletico La Paz is the most likely winner with a 55% probability. Venados FC has a 20% chance of winning, and the draw is rated at 25%, based on form, league positions, and bookmaker odds.
- What is the win probability for Atletico La Paz?
- Atletico La Paz has a 55% chance of winning this match. This high probability is due to their 2nd-place league position, an unbeaten run in their last five games, and Venados FC's poor away form.
- When is the Atletico La Paz vs Venados FC match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, with a kick-off time of 04:00. It is a Liga de Expansion MX fixture taking place in Mexico.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best available odds are 1.55 for an Atletico La Paz home win, 4.10 for a draw, and 4.75 for a Venados FC away win. These odds clearly indicate Atletico La Paz as the strong favorite.