Ventforet Kofu - Kataller Toyama prediction 3 October 2026

Ventforet Kofu vs Kataller Toyama prediction for the J2 League match on Oct 3, 2026, at 08:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Kataller Toyama enters as the favorite with a 48% win probability, while Ventforet Kofu has just a 20% chance to win at home.

Team Form

Ventforet Kofu's recent form is poor. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded one win and four losses (L, L, L, W, L). The sequence includes a heavy 5-1 defeat at Omiya Ardija, back-to-back 0-1 home losses to Tokushima Vortis and Jubilo Iwata, a 2-1 away win at Montedio Yamagata, and a 3-0 League Cup loss at FC Osaka. They have failed to score in three of those five games.

Kataller Toyama comes into this fixture in much better shape. Their last five results (L, D, W, D, W) show two wins, two draws, and one loss. The defeat was a 2-3 home loss to Urawa Red Diamonds in the League Cup. In J2 League play, they are unbeaten in four matches: a 3-3 home draw with Yokohama FC, a 2-0 away win at Montedio Yamagata, a 0-0 home draw with Tochigi City, and a 1-0 away win at Jubilo Iwata. Their attack has been consistent, scoring in four of the last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Kataller Toyama. The two sides have met twice in J2 League history, and Kataller Toyama won both encounters. On Mar 2, 2025, Kataller Toyama won 2-0 at home. Later that year, on Nov 23, 2025, they beat Ventforet Kofu 1-0 away. Ventforet Kofu has yet to score a goal against Kataller Toyama in competitive matches.

League Table Positions

Kataller Toyama sits 5th in the J2 League table with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 16 goals and conceded only 8, giving them the second-best goal difference among the top six. Ventforet Kofu is not in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating they are in the lower half of the table. The gap in league position underlines the difference in quality between the two teams this season.

Win Probability: Ventforet Kofu or Kataller Toyama?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities for this match are: Ventforet Kofu win – 20%, draw – 32%, Kataller Toyama win – 48%. These percentages are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 4.16, draw 2.62, away 2.03), adjusted for the contrasting form of both teams, Kataller Toyama's perfect head-to-head record, and the league table gap. Home advantage is factored in, but Ventforet Kofu's recent home defeats reduce its impact. Kataller Toyama is clearly the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Kataller Toyama as the favorite for this J2 League clash. The average odds from five bookmakers are 4.16 for a Ventforet Kofu win, 2.62 for a draw, and 2.03 for a Kataller Toyama win. These odds imply an away win probability of around 44% before adjustments. Given the strong away form of Kataller Toyama (3 wins in 4 away league games) and Ventforet Kofu's struggles, the value lies with the visitors. Our Ventforet Kofu vs Kataller Toyama prediction is an away win, but a draw cannot be ruled out based on the stats.