SC Paderborn 07 - VfB Stuttgart prediction 28 October 2026

The SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction for October 10, 2026, points to an away win for the visitors, who hold a 48% chance of victory according to our probability model. This Bundesliga clash at the Home Deluxe Arena kicks off at 14:30 local time, with bookmakers and recent form both leaning towards Stuttgart despite Paderborn’s home advantage.

Team Form

SC Paderborn 07 come into this match with a mixed run of results: two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings (W-W-L-L-D). They secured a 3-1 home victory over TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga and a 1-0 friendly win at D.C. United, but suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund and a narrow 0-1 home loss to SC Freiburg. A goalless draw at Mainz 05 rounded off their recent league fixtures, leaving them with four points from four Bundesliga matches.

VfB Stuttgart’s form reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five games. They thrashed Greuther Furth 5-0 and Heidenheim 3-0 in friendlies, and beat Viking 3-1 in the UEFA Champions League. However, their Bundesliga results are concerning: a 0-1 home loss to Borussia Dortmund and a 1-2 defeat at TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Stuttgart have yet to pick up a point in their two league matches shown in the data, but their overall scoring power remains evident.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once in the available data, a DFB Pokal encounter on January 31, 2023. VfB Stuttgart won that match 2-1 away at SC Paderborn 07, giving them a 1-0 edge in the head-to-head record. No draws or home wins for Paderborn have been recorded in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Neither SC Paderborn 07 nor VfB Stuttgart appear in the top 12 of the current Bundesliga standings, suggesting both clubs are positioned in the lower half of the table. The exact rankings are not provided, but the absence from the upper echelon indicates a challenging start to the season for both teams.

Win Probability: SC Paderborn 07 or VfB Stuttgart?

Based on the average bookmaker odds (home 4.35, draw 3.04, away 1.73) and adjusted for recent form and home advantage, the win probabilities are: SC Paderborn 07 – 22%, draw – 30%, VfB Stuttgart – 48%. The odds imply a strong away favorite, and Stuttgart’s superior squad depth and historical edge tilt the balance. However, Paderborn’s home resilience and Stuttgart’s shaky Bundesliga away form (one loss in their only away league game shown) keep the draw as a realistic outcome. Overall, VfB Stuttgart is the more likely winner, but not by a wide margin.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds for this match: a home win for SC Paderborn 07 can be backed between 4.00 and 4.90, the draw from 2.58 to 4.80, and an away win for VfB Stuttgart from 1.50 to 1.91. The clear consensus is that Stuttgart are favorites. Our prediction, based on the stats, is an away victory, but the draw probability is high enough to consider a cautious approach. A 1-2 scoreline, mirroring the only previous meeting, is a plausible outcome.