Victoria Wrzesnia - Grom Nowy Staw prediction 10 October 2026

The Victoria Wrzesnia vs Grom Nowy Staw prediction looks ahead to a III Liga clash on Oct 10 at 11:00. Based on the stats, the home side are marginal favorites with around a 37% win probability, but the draw is also a strong possibility.

Team Form

Victoria Wrzesnia come into this match with a remarkable run of five consecutive draws. Their last five results read D, D, D, D, D. In their most recent outing, they played out a 0-0 stalemate at Gedania Gdansk. Prior to that, they drew 1-1 at home to Lipno Steszew, 1-1 at Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski, 2-2 at home to Chemik Bydgoszcz, and 3-3 at home to KKS Wlokniarz 1925 Kalisz. While they are hard to beat, their inability to convert draws into wins is a concern.

Grom Nowy Staw have a mixed bag of results: L, W, W, L, D. They suffered a 3-1 home defeat to Baltyk Koszalin on Oct 3, but had previously won 3-1 at Kss Kotwica Kornik and recorded a dominant 5-0 home victory against Flota Swinoujscie. Their inconsistencies, especially away from home where they lost 5-1 at KTS-K Luzino, make them unpredictable.

Head-to-Head Record

These two teams have only met once before, in an IV Liga fixture on Jun 25, 2025. That match, with Grom Nowy Staw as the home side, ended in a 2-2 draw. The head-to-head record therefore stands at 0 wins for Victoria Wrzesnia, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Grom Nowy Staw.

League Table Positions

Neither Victoria Wrzesnia nor Grom Nowy Staw feature in the top 12 of the provided III Liga standings. This suggests both are in the lower half of the table, making this a potentially crucial match for securing points.

Win Probability: Victoria Wrzesnia or Grom Nowy Staw?

Victoria Wrzesnia has a 37% chance of winning, the draw is at 32%, and Grom Nowy Staw has a 31% chance. This calculation is based primarily on the available bookmaker odds. The average odds across five bookmakers are approximately 2.68 for a home win, 2.45 for a draw, and 2.91 for an away win. By inverting these odds and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the raw probabilities favor a tight contest. The home advantage for Victoria Wrzesnia is factored in, but their sequence of five straight draws heavily increases the draw probability. Grom Nowy Staw's away form is inconsistent, which slightly dents their chances. The single H2H fixture also ended in a draw, reinforcing the view that this is an evenly matched contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very open match. The best available odds are 2.62 for a Victoria Wrzesnia win, 2.35 for the draw, and 2.75 for a Grom Nowy Staw victory. The odds imply little to separate the sides. Victoria Wrzesnia are the narrow favorites purely by virtue of playing at home, but the value may lie in the draw bet given their recent form. Based on the stats, a low-scoring draw looks the most likely outcome.