Viimsi MRJK - Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction 17 September 2026

The Viimsi MRJK vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction for this Esiliiga clash on Sep 17 at 16:00 sees the league leaders as the slight favorite, though playing away from home. Based on the data, Tartu JK Welco Elekter has a 40% win probability, while Viimsi MRJK has a 35% chance, and the draw is at 25%.

Team Form

Viimsi MRJK's recent form has been inconsistent, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches (W, W, L, W, L). Their most recent outing was a 1-0 defeat away to Nomme United 2 on Sep 13. At home, they have been strong, securing a 5-0 victory against Elva and a 4-1 win over Nomme United 2 in their last two home fixtures.

Tartu JK Welco Elekter comes into this match with a more balanced record of two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five (W, D, D, L, W). They secured a convincing 3-0 home win against JK Nomme Kalju 2 on Sep 14. Away from home, they have drawn their last two matches, 0-0 at Levadia Tallinn II and 1-1 at Tallinna Kalev.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Viimsi MRJK. In their last 11 meetings, Viimsi MRJK has won 7, Tartu JK Welco Elekter has won 1, and there have been 3 draws. The most recent encounter was on Aug 29, 2026, where Viimsi MRJK secured a dominant 3-1 away victory. Viimsi MRJK also won the previous home fixture 2-0 on Apr 23, 2026.

League Table Positions

Tartu JK Welco Elekter sits at the top of the Esiliiga table with 59 points from 29 matches, having scored a league-high 79 goals. Viimsi MRJK is in 2nd place with 50 points, 9 points behind the leaders. Defensively, Viimsi MRJK has been the best in the league, conceding only 29 goals. In the away standings, Tartu JK Welco Elekter is ranked 1st with 29 points from 15 games, while Viimsi MRJK is ranked 2nd in the home table with 23 points from 14 matches.

Win Probability: Viimsi MRJK or Tartu JK Welco Elekter?

After analyzing the available data, the win probabilities for this match are: Viimsi MRJK 35%, draw 25%, and Tartu JK Welco Elekter 40%. This calculation is based on the implied probabilities from the best available odds (home 1.83, draw 2.60, away 3.10), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for head-to-head dominance and recent form. While Viimsi MRJK has a commanding H2H record, Tartu JK Welco Elekter's superior league position, goal-scoring form, and top-ranked away record give them a marginal edge in probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive match. The best odds available show a home win for Viimsi MRJK at 1.83, a draw at 2.60, and an away win for Tartu JK Welco Elekter at 3.10. Based on the stats, the value might lie with the league leaders. Our Viimsi MRJK vs Tartu JK Welco Elekter prediction is that Tartu JK Welco Elekter has a slightly higher chance of winning, but the match is likely to be closely contested.