Parnu JK Vaprus II - Viljandi Tulevik prediction 17 October 2026

Our Parnu JK Vaprus II vs Viljandi Tulevik prediction for the Esiliiga B match on October 17, 2026, points to an away victory as the most likely outcome, though the stats suggest a tight contest. Viljandi Tulevik enters as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while the home side holds a 30% chance and the draw rounds out the card at 30%.

Team Form

Parnu JK Vaprus II’s recent form has been a rollercoaster — two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five outings. They thrashed Tallinna JK Legion 12-0 at home and repeated a 7-0 demolition of Tallinna Kalev II on their own turf, but those highs were immediately followed by a 0-4 home loss to FA Tartu Kalev and a 2-3 defeat against Johvi FC Phoenix, also at home. Their most recent result was a 1-1 away draw against Tallinna Kalev II, which hints at some defensive tightening after the earlier chaos.

Viljandi Tulevik’s last five matches tell a Story of three wins and two defeats. They claimed away wins at Tallinna JK Legion (2-1) and FCI Levadia Tallinn U19 (5-3), plus a 6-1 home hammering of FA Tartu Kalev. The two blots came in a 1-3 home loss to Tallinna Kalev II and a 2-3 away reverse at Tartu JK Tammeka 2. Overall, the visitors have shown they can score heavily but remain vulnerable at the back — exactly the kind of profile that makes this Esiliiga B clash unpredictable.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous head-to-head meeting between these two sides took place on August 20, 2026, and it ended in a 2-2 draw. With such limited history, there’s no clear H2H pattern to lean on, leaving recent form and league standing as the primary indicators.

League Table Positions

Viljandi Tulevik occupies third place in the Esiliiga B table, having secured 50 points from 32 matches (15 wins, 5 draws, 12 losses). That represents a solid campaign pushing for the top spots. As for Parnu JK Vaprus II, their league position is not listed in the provided standings data — they are absent from the top nine, suggesting they operate as a reserve or development side without the same competitive pressure. The gap in league status gives Viljandi Tulevik a clear institutional edge.

Win Probability: Parnu JK Vaprus II or Viljandi Tulevik?

Based on all available match data, the total probabilities break down as follows: Viljandi Tulevik win — 40%, draw — 30%, Parnu JK Vaprus II win — 30%. The away side’s superior league ranking (3rd vs a team not in the top nine) and a run that includes two authoritative away wins tip the balance, despite their defensive shortcomings. Home advantage for Parnu JK Vaprus II and their capacity for high-scoring home victories keep them in the frame, while a draw carries a realistic weight given both teams’ inconsistency. Our conclusion: Viljandi Tulevik is the more likely winner, but the margin is far from comfortable.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture. In the absence of odds, the prediction hews closely to the statistical indicators: Viljandi Tulevik to win. An away victory best reconciles the visitors’ stronger league standing, solid recent scoring form, and the fact that the only previous encounter ended level — hinting that a repeat stalemate cannot be ruled out. Punters will need to wait for line movements if they want to trade on the match, but for those seeking a direct who will win pick, Viljandi Tulevik looks the value side.