Real Pilar - Villa Dalmine prediction 3 October 2026

Real Pilar vs Villa Dalmine prediction for the Primera B Metropolitana match on Oct 3, 2026 at 21:00 local time. Based on our analysis, Real Pilar holds a 37% win probability, a draw is at 33%, and Villa Dalmine has a 30% chance.

Team Form

Real Pilar's last five results: L, W, W, L, D. They fell 0–3 away to Excursionistas on Sep 26, beat Arsenal de Sarandí 2–1 at home on Sep 19, won 1–0 at Argentino Merlo on Sep 12, lost 0–2 at home to Talleres Remedios on Sep 5, and drew 1–1 at Deportivo Laferrere on Aug 29. That shows two wins, two losses and a draw in their recent outings.

Villa Dalmine enter with a D, W, L, L, D run. They drew 0–0 at home with UAI Urquiza on Sep 27, defeated Ituzaingo 3–1 at home on Sep 19, were beaten 0–3 by Excursionistas away on Sep 13, lost 0–1 at home to Arsenal de Sarandí on Sep 5, and drew 0–0 away at Argentino Merlo on Aug 30. Only one win in five highlights inconsistent form.

Head-to-Head Record

All three previous meetings in the Primera B Metropolitana ended in draws. The most recent on May 23, 2026 saw Villa Dalmine 1–1 Real Pilar. On Jul 13, 2025 the same 1–1 scoreline occurred at Villa Dalmine, and on Feb 22, 2025 they played out a 0–0 at Real Pilar. The head-to-head record stands at 0 home wins, 3 draws, 0 away wins.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera B Metropolitana standings, Villa Dalmine sit 4th with 63 points from 36 matches (17 wins, 12 draws, 7 losses). Real Pilar are 7th with 58 points from 37 matches (16 wins, 10 draws, 11 losses).

Villa Dalmine’s away form is notably strong: they rank 3rd in the away table with 32 points from 18 away games (9 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses) and a goal difference of +10. Real Pilar’s home record does not place in the top eight of the home table; they have collected 28 points from 18 home matches.

Win Probability: Real Pilar or Villa Dalmine?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as: Real Pilar win 37%, draw 33%, Villa Dalmine win 30%. This uses the bookmaker odds (home 2.30–2.32, draw 2.72–2.75, away 3.00–3.10) as the base, normalized to remove margin, then adjusted for recent form, the all-draw head-to-head trend, and Villa Dalmine’s superior away results. The high draw probability reflects the history of this fixture, while Real Pilar’s home status gives them a marginal edge. Villa Dalmine remain competitive due to their excellent away league performance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers set Real Pilar as a narrow favourite around 2.30, the draw at about 2.75, and Villa Dalmine’s win around 3.05 on average. Our numbers align with a tight match. Considering both teams’ mixed form and the head-to-head trend, the most likely outcome is a draw or a slim home win. The stats point to a low-scoring affair similar to previous encounters.