Ukmerge - Viltis Vilnius prediction 5 September 2026

Ukmerge vs Viltis Vilnius prediction for the 2 Lyga match on September 5, 2026. Kick-off is at 13:00. Based on form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Ukmerge has a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Viltis Vilnius has a 15% chance.

Team Form

Ukmerge come into this match with solid recent results. In their last five games, they have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss. The most recent outing was a 2-0 defeat away to Suduva Marijampole B on August 29. Before that, they drew 2-2 at home to Sirijus Klaipeda, won 2-1 against Dainava B, beat Klaipeda 2-1 at home, and defeated Silute 1-0 on June 26. This run shows Ukmerge are capable of scoring and winning tight matches.

Viltis Vilnius, on the other hand, are struggling. Their last five matches have yielded only one win and four defeats. They lost 1-2 at home to Sirijus Klaipeda on August 30, then fell 1-3 away to Dainava B, lost 0-2 at home to Klaipeda, were beaten 2-3 by Silute away, and managed a 2-1 home win over FC Neptunas B on August 2. That lone victory is their only positive result in recent weeks, and their defensive record is a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record heavily favours Viltis Vilnius. In four previous meetings, Ukmerge have never won, with Viltis Vilnius claiming three victories and one draw. The most recent clash was on April 26, 2026, when Viltis Vilnius won 3-2 away at Ukmerge. Before that, Viltis won 3-0 in October 2025, and the teams drew 2-2 in June 2025. The only other meeting in 2023 ended 5-1 to Viltis Vilnius. Despite this dominance, Ukmerge will hope to break the trend with their current form.

Win Probability: Ukmerge or Viltis Vilnius?

Using the available odds and team statistics, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Ukmerge to win – 60%, draw – 25%, Viltis Vilnius to win – 15%. The bookmakers’ odds (1.53 for a home win) imply a strong favouritism for Ukmerge, and their recent form backs that up. However, Viltis Vilnius’s head-to-head superiority cannot be ignored, but their poor run of results reduces their chances significantly. The home advantage for Ukmerge also plays a role. Overall, Ukmerge are the likely winners, but a draw is a plausible outcome given the H2H history.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds from bookmakers are: Ukmerge win at 1.53, draw at 3.10, and Viltis Vilnius win at 7.50. These numbers clearly show that Ukmerge are the favourites. Our prediction aligns with the odds: Ukmerge to win. However, with Viltis Vilnius’s strong record in this fixture, a cautious approach might consider the draw or a small stake on the away side. But based on the form and probability, Ukmerge are the most likely to secure three points.