Vitoria BA - Chapecoense SC prediction 8 October 2026
Vitoria BA
Chapecoense SCVitoria BA
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras SP | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 56:22 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo RJ | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 61:25 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro MG | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 51:46 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense PR | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 50:38 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 50:41 | +9 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico Mineiro MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 42:35 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia BA | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 45:40 | +5 | 50 |
| 8 |  Santos | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 49:47 | +2 | 46 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo SP | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 37:36 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  Red Bull Bragantino SP | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39:38 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo RJ | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 44:51 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba PR | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 38:49 | -11 | 39 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 39:45 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 35:46 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol SP | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37:45 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional RS | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 36:40 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians SP | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 34:42 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio RS | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 34:44 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo PA | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 26 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 31 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32:63 | -31 | 21 |
Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC Prediction (Oct 8)
Our Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC prediction for this Brazilian Serie A fixture on October 8, 2026, gives the home side a 50% win probability. Bookmakers and the league table point clearly towards a Vitoria BA victory at the Barradao, though Chapecoense SCโs recent away draws suggest the visitors will not roll over easily.
Team Form
Vitoria BAโs last five outings have been inconsistent: a 1-3 home defeat to Cruzeiro MG, a 2-2 draw away at Mirassol SP, a 1-0 home win over Gremio RS, a 0-2 cup loss to Vasco da Gama RJ, and a 1-2 loss away to Atletico Mineiro MG. That returns just one victory alongside one draw and three losses.
Chapecoense SCโs recent form is mixed as well. They drew 1-1 away at Atletico Nacional Medellin (friendly), earned a 1-1 draw at Atletico Mineiro MG, lost 1-2 at home to Internacional RS, pulled off a 2-1 away win at Corinthians SP, and fell 1-3 away to Gremio RS. That gives them one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five.
Head-to-Head Record
In 16 meetings, Vitoria BA have won 8 times, there have been 3 draws, and Chapecoense SC have won 5. The most recent clash, on April 5, 2026, ended in a 1-1 stalemate in Chapecoenseโs backyard. The last time Vitoria BA hosted this fixture, back in July 2023, they won 1-0.
League Table Positions
The full Serie A standings show Vitoria BA sitting 5th in the home table with 28 points from 14 games (9 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 18 goals scored, 12 conceded). Chapecoense SC do not appear in the top 8 of the away table, indicating they have struggled on their travels. This homeโaway gap is a major factor in the prediction.
Win Probability: Vitoria BA or Chapecoense SC?
After normalising bookmaker odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head history, and the massive home advantage, we calculate that Vitoria BA has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Chapecoense SC has a 20% chance. The odds implied a home win probability around 47โ49%, but Vitoria BAโs topโ5 home record in Serie A pushes that above the 50% mark.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers have priced a home win as low as 1.62 and as high as 1.71; a draw is quoted between 2.22 and 2.30, while an away victory stands at 4.33 to 5.00. These odds confirm Vitoria BA as the expected winner. Taking everything into account, the most likely outcome is a narrow Vitoria BA victory. The stats support a lowโscoring affair, so a correct score of 1-0 or 2-1 could be on the cards, but the draw cannot be discounted if Chapecoense SC manage to frustrate the hosts.
Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC โ FAQ
- Who will win Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC?
- Based on analysis of odds, team form, and the homeโground factor, Vitoria BA holds a 50% win probability, a draw is at 30%, and Chapecoense SC has a 20% chance. Home strength makes Vitoria BA the most likely winner.
- What is the win probability for Vitoria BA?
- Vitoria BA has a 50% chance of winning the match. This is driven by their 5thโplace home record in Serie A (9 wins from 14 games) and bookmakersโ odds that imply a home win probability of around 47โ49% before adjustment.
- When is the Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC match?
- The Brazilian Serie A match kicks off on October 8, 2026, at 00:00 local time at the Barradao stadium in Salvador, Brazil.
- What are the odds for Vitoria BA vs Chapecoense SC?
- Prematch odds show home win prices from 1.62 to 1.71,adraw between 2.22 and 2.30, and an away win between 4.33 and 5.00. These prices make Vitoria BA the clear favourite.
- What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria BA and Chapecoense SC?
- Vitoria BA lead the head-to-head with 8 wins,3 draws, and5 losses from16 meetings. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw in April2026 in the Brazilian Serie A.