Benfica - Vitoria Guimaraes prediction 11 October 2026
Benfica
Vitoria Guimaraes
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 |
| 3 |  Sporting Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | +10 | 18 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | +5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:11 | +2 | 17 |
| 7 |  Gil Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  Braga | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Moreirense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11:16 | -5 | 11 |
| 11 |  Famalicao | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | +3 | 10 |
| 12 |  Estrela Amadora | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Maritimo | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:19 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10:18 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  Estoril Praia | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 2 |
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction (Oct 11)
The Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction for October 11, 2026, points to a comfortable home win for the Lisbon giants. Played in the Primeira Liga at the Estรกdio da Luz, Benfica enters the match as the overwhelming favorite with a 65% win probability, while Vitoria Guimaraes faces an uphill battle at just 10% according to our calculations based on odds, form, and history.
Team Form
Benfica brings solid form into this clash, having won four of their last five outings (L, W, W, W, W). The lone defeat came away at FC Porto (3-1), but the Eagles responded with strong victories over AC Milan (2-0 in the Europa League), Gil Vicente (3-1), Moreirense (4-0), and Maritimo (3-0). At home, they remain unbeaten this season in the league.
Vitoria Guimaraes, in contrast, has struggled for consistency (W, D, L, D, L). A friendly win over Chaves (1-0) was followed by a 1-1 home draw with Moreirense, a 2-1 loss at Academico Viseu, a goalless stalemate against Casa Pia, and a 1-0 defeat at Braga. Such form does little to suggest an upset at the Estรกdio da Luz.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record is one-sided in Benficaโs favour. Across 34 previous meetings, Benfica has 29 wins, 4 draws, and Vitoria Guimaraes has just 1 victory. The last five encounters show Benfica dominance: a 3-0 home win on Mar 21, 2026; a 3-0 away win on Nov 1, 2025; a 3-0 away win on Apr 19, 2025; a 1-0 home win on Dec 7, 2024; and a 2-2 draw on Feb 11, 2024. Vitoria has not beaten Benfica in any of those matches, and they have failed to score in four of the five.
League Table Positions
Benfica sits 2nd in the Primeira Liga with 16 points from 7 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), having scored 22 goals and conceding just 7. Vitoria Guimaraes does not feature in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating a significant gap in performance and quality between the two sides.
Win Probability: Benfica or Vitoria Guimaraes?
Using the latest odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Benfica win 65%, draw 25%, Vitoria Guimaraes win 10% (total 100%). The base implied probabilities from the odds (1.50 home, 2.80 draw, 8.50 away) gave Benfica a 58% chance, but their strong home form, historical dominance in this fixture, and the visitorsโ poor recent results tilt the numbers further in the hostsโ favour.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers across the market see Benfica as the clear favourite, offering home win odds between 1.18 and 1.50, with the draw around 2.72โ3.10 and an away Vitoria Guimaraes win at 7.75โ16.00. The consensus points to a low-scoring home victory. Based on the stats, Benfica should control the match and collect all three points โ the most likely outcome is a home win.
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes โ FAQ
- Who will win Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
- Benfica is heavily favoured. According to our win probability analysis, Benfica has a 65% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and Vitoria Guimaraes has just a 10% chance.
- What is the win probability for Benfica?
- Benficaโs win probability is estimated at 65%. This is based on normalised odds (implied 58%), superior recent form, a dominant head-to-head record (29 wins in 34 meetings), and clear home advantage at Estรกdio da Luz.
- When is the Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes match?
- The match is scheduled for October 11, 2026, at 18:00 local time. It is a Primeira Liga fixture and will be played at Estรกdio da Luz in Lisbon, Portugal.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds vary slightly across bookmakers. Typical 1X2 odds show a Benfica home win at around 1.50, the draw at 2.80, and a Vitoria Guimaraes away win at 8.50. Some books offer as low as 1.18 for a Benfica win.