Vitoria Guimaraes - Maritimo prediction 23 October 2026

Our Vitoria Guimaraes vs Maritimo prediction for this Primeira Liga match on Oct 23, 2026, at 20:45 leans strongly toward the home side. Based on the available stats, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Vitoria Guimaraes enters the clash as the clear favorite with a calculated win probability of 62%, while Maritimo faces an uphill battle at 15% and the draw sits at 23%.

Team Form

Vitoria Guimaraes comes into this fixture with a mixed bag of results, posting two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings (W, L, W, D, L). Their most recent match was a 1-0 Cup win away against ACDR Lamelas Recreativo de Lam on Oct 17. Before that, they suffered a 2-0 league defeat to Benfica. At home, they drew 1-1 with Moreirense in their last Primeira Liga match at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.

Maritimo's recent form shows one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (W, L, D, L, L). They are coming off a 2-1 away victory over Alcochetense in the Cup on Oct 18, but their league form is a concern. In their last three Primeira Liga matches, they lost 2-1 at home to FC Porto, drew 1-1 at Gil Vicente, and fell 3-1 to Moreirense.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record heavily favors the home side. In 18 meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes has 14 wins, Maritimo has just 1 win, and there have been 3 draws. The last five encounters underline this dominance:

• Apr 29, 2023: Maritimo 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes
• Nov 13, 2022: Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo
• Mar 13, 2022: Maritimo 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes
• Mar 13, 2022: Maritimo 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes
• Oct 22, 2021: Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 Maritimo

Vitoria Guimaraes has won all of the last five clashes, keeping a clean sheet in three of them.

League Table Positions

Maritimo is currently placed 11th in the Primeira Liga standings with 8 points from 8 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), scoring 9 goals and conceding 14. Vitoria Guimaraes is not explicitly listed in the supplied league table, indicating they sit outside the top 12. However, based on the overall standings, Maritimo's position is far from secure, and they have struggled for consistency. The table is led by FC Porto with 24 points, followed by Benfica with 19.

Win Probability: Vitoria Guimaraes or Maritimo?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities based on the available odds, adjusting for the dominant head-to-head record and home advantage. Bookmakers' 1X2 odds average around 1.53 for a home win, 2.28 for the draw (after removing an outlier), and 5.71 for an away win. After normalizing the inverse odds to remove the margin, the raw probabilities shift further in favor of Vitoria Guimaraes when factoring in their 14-1-3 historical advantage and Maritimo's poor away form.

The final probabilities are: Vitoria Guimaraes has a 62% chance of winning, the draw is at 23%, and Maritimo has a 15% chance. The home team's historical dominance and Maritimo's leaky defense make a home win the most statistically sound outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from various bookmakers show Vitoria Guimaraes as the strong favorite, with home win odds as low as 1.48 and generally hovering around 1.55. The draw is priced between 2.25 and 4.20, while an away win for Maritimo is offered at long odds between 5.25 and 6.80. Bookmakers clearly see Vitoria Guimaraes as the team most likely to take all three points.

Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable match outcome. The head-to-head record suggests a low-scoring affair, often with Vitoria Guimaraes winning by a single goal.