Vitoria Guimaraes - Moreirense prediction 20 September 2026

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense prediction: this Primeira Liga match on Sep 20, 2026 at 14:30 sees Vitoria Guimaraes as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability. The draw sits at 24%, while Moreirense has a 16% chance to cause an upset at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.

Team Form

Vitoria Guimaraes come into this fixture with mixed recent results. Their last five matches show one win, one draw, and three losses (L, D, L, W, L). The sole positive was a 1-0 home victory over Nacional Madeira on Aug 23. The other games ended in defeats to Academico Viseu (1-2), Braga (0-1), and Sporting Lisbon (2-3), plus a 0-0 draw with Casa Pia. The defense has been breached in four of those five outings.

Moreirense are in poor form, with four defeats in five matches (L, L, W, L, L). Their only win was a 1-0 away result at Casa Pia on Aug 30. Heavy losses include a 0-4 home reverse to Benfica (twice), a 1-2 defeat at FC Porto, and a 0-4 collapse at Arouca. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches, with the sole clean sheet coming in that lone victory.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Vitoria Guimaraes lead the head-to-head with 12 wins, 4 draws, and 8 Moreirense victories. In the last five meetings, Vitoria Guimaraes won three, Moreirense won one, and there was one draw. The most recent encounter, on Jan 30, 2026, ended 1-0 to Vitoria Guimaraes at this same venue. Notably, three of the last four home games for Vitoria Guimaraes against Moreirense have been 1-0 victories. The away side’s only recent success was a 2-0 home win in August 2025.

Win Probability: Vitoria Guimaraes or Moreirense?

Based on the available odds and team stats, Vitoria Guimaraes have a 60% chance of winning, a draw is at 24%, and Moreirense hold a 16% chance. The calculation starts from bookmaker odds: 1.53 for a home win implies an initial 65.4% probability, 3.80 for the draw gives 26.3%, and 5.50 for an away win gives 18.2%. After removing the overround, these normalize to 59.5%, 24.0%, and 16.5%. Home form and the strong H2H record in Guimaraes slightly boost the home probability to an even 60%. Moreirense’s dismal defensive record and four losses in five matches reduce their realistic chances.

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers strongly favor the home side. The best odds from the supplied data show a Vitoria Guimaraes win at 1.53, a draw at 3.80, and a Moreirense away win at 5.50. Smaller variations exist (1.52–1.53 for the home win, up to 6.00 for the away), but the overall pattern is clear. The predicted outcome is a Vitoria Guimaraes victory. While recent form is not flawless, the combination of home advantage, head-to-head dominance, and Moreirense’s leaky defense makes the hosts the most probable winners.