Jong AZ Alkmaar - Volendam prediction 18 September 2026

The Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Volendam prediction for this 1 Eerste Divisie match on Sep 18 at 18:00 points towards a closely contested affair. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Volendam enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Jong AZ Alkmaar has a 35% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Jong AZ Alkmaar's recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. They suffered a 3-2 away defeat to Heracles Almelo on Sep 11, but previously secured a high-scoring 6-3 victory at Dordrecht on Sep 05. At home, they edged Jong FC Utrecht 2-1 on Aug 31, but fell 1-2 to MVV Maastricht on Aug 28.

Volendam shows a similar pattern with three wins and two losses in their last five. They are coming off a solid 2-0 home win against Den Bosch on Sep 13. Before that, they were involved in a thrilling 5-3 loss at Emmen on Sep 04. Notably, Volendam demolished Dordrecht 6-1 at home on Aug 28, highlighting their attacking potential.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Volendam. In their last six meetings, Volendam has won three, with three draws, and Jong AZ Alkmaar is yet to record a victory. The most recent clash on Apr 14, 2025, saw Volendam win 1-0 away at Jong AZ Alkmaar. Earlier, on Dec 06, 2024, Volendam secured a 2-0 home win. The teams also drew 1-1 twice in March 2019.

League Table Positions

In the 1 Eerste Divisie standings, Volendam sits 10th with 9 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), scoring 16 goals and conceding 10. Jong AZ Alkmaar is 11th with 9 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses), with 17 goals scored and 15 conceded. Volendam's home form is perfect: 3 wins from 3, with 11 goals scored and only 1 conceded. Jong AZ Alkmaar's away record shows 2 wins and 2 losses from 4 matches.

Win Probability: Jong AZ Alkmaar or Volendam?

After analyzing all available data, the win probabilities are: Jong AZ Alkmaar 35%, Draw 25%, Volendam 40%. This calculation is based on the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home 2.73, draw 2.64, away 2.46), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for Volendam's dominant head-to-head record (3 wins, 0 losses) and perfect home league form this season. Jong AZ Alkmaar's home advantage for this fixture is negated by their historical struggles against Volendam. Volendam has a 40% chance of winning, making them the more likely victor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest. The average odds are 2.73 for a Jong AZ Alkmaar win, 2.64 for the draw, and 2.46 for a Volendam away victory. The lowest offered odds for a Volendam win are 2.35, confirming their status as marginal favorites. Based on the stats, form, and historical dominance, the match prediction leans towards a Volendam win or a draw, with the away side having the edge.