KuPS - VPS Vaasa prediction 18 October 2026

The KuPS vs VPS Vaasa prediction points to a home win in this Veikkausliiga clash on Jul 25, 2026, at 14:00. League leaders KuPS have a 50% chance of victory, while third-placed VPS Vaasa sit at 20% win probability, with the draw at 30%. Bookmakers and recent form both back the hosts as the clear favorites.

Team Form

KuPS come into this match in strong shape, winning four of their last five outings. Their recent results:

• Win 2-0 vs Seinajoen JK (away, Veikkausliiga, Jul 18)
• Loss 0-2 vs Vardar Skopje (home, UEFA Champions League Qualification, Jul 14)
• Win 2-0 vs Vardar Skopje (away, UCL Qualification, Jul 07)
• Win 4-0 vs HJK Helsinki (away, Veikkausliiga, Jun 27)
• Win 4-3 vs Ilves (home, Veikkausliiga, Jun 23)

VPS Vaasa's form is more mixed, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five:

• Loss 1-2 vs HJK Helsinki (away, Veikkausliiga, Jul 18)
• Win 1-0 vs Seinajoen JK (home, Veikkausliiga, Jul 10)
• Win 4-0 vs Mariehamn (home, Veikkausliiga, Jul 04)
• Loss 2-3 vs Inter Turku (home, Cup, Jun 30)
• Draw 1-1 vs Gnistan (away, Veikkausliiga, Jun 27)

Head-to-Head Record

KuPS hold a historical edge with 13 wins to VPS Vaasa's 6, alongside 6 draws. The last five meetings show a tighter picture:

• Jun 13, 2026: VPS Vaasa 1-1 KuPS (Veikkausliiga)
• Jun 10, 2026: KuPS 0-0 VPS Vaasa (Cup)
• Jan 31, 2026: KuPS 3-1 VPS Vaasa (Ykkoscup)
• Jul 19, 2025: VPS Vaasa 1-1 KuPS (Veikkausliiga)
• May 25, 2025: KuPS 0-2 VPS Vaasa (Veikkausliiga)

Three of the last four Veikkausliiga encounters ended in draws, but KuPS remain unbeaten in three of those four.

League Table Positions

KuPS top the Veikkausliiga with 33 points from 16 matches (9 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss). At home they are unbeaten: 5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses, with 15 goals scored and only 8 conceded. VPS Vaasa sit 3rd with 27 points (7 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses). Their away record is less convincing: 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, scoring just 6 goals in 8 road games. The 6-point gap and home advantage strongly favour KuPS.

Win Probability: KuPS or VPS Vaasa?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as:

• KuPS win: 50%
• Draw: 30%
• VPS Vaasa win: 20%

The odds implied a home win chance of around 43.6% after removing the bookmaker margin, but KuPS's dominant home form (unbeaten, 2.13 points per game) and VPS Vaasa's struggles on the road (only 9 points from 8 away games) justify an upward adjustment. The head-to-head trend of frequent draws keeps the draw probability significant. KuPS are clearly the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see KuPS as the favourite, with home win odds ranging from 1.77 to 1.82. The draw is priced around 2.18–2.30, and an away win for VPS Vaasa at 3.95–4.20. Based on the stats, a home victory is the most probable outcome, but the high draw odds and recent H2H results suggest a tight contest. Our KuPS vs VPS Vaasa prediction is a home win, with a draw as the main danger.