Warta Poznan - LKS Lodz prediction 26 October 2026

The Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz prediction for this I Liga clash on October 26, 2026, at 17:00 points to a tight contest. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Warta Poznan enters as a slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while LKS Lodz holds a 35% chance and the draw sits at 27%.

Team Form

Warta Poznan comes into this match in strong shape, having won four of their last five outings. Their recent results show victories over Unia Skierniewice (1-0), Chrobry Glogow (3-1), Puszcza Niepolomice (3-2), and Arka Gdynia (3-0), with the only blemish a 2-1 loss at Stal Mielec. This run of W, L, W, W, W highlights their attacking threat, scoring nine goals in those five games.

LKS Lodz has been less consistent, with a form line of W, L, L, W, D. They edged Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala 1-0 at home but suffered defeats to Ruch Chorzow (0-2) and Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (0-2). An away win at Puszcza Niepolomice (2-1) and a 1-1 draw at Arka Gdynia complete the picture. The visitors have struggled for goals on the road, failing to score in two of their last three away matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors LKS Lodz, who have won four of the last six meetings, with Warta Poznan winning one and one draw. The most recent encounter saw LKS Lodz triumph 3-1 at home in March 2025. Warta Poznan's lone victory in this span came in September 2023, a 2-0 away win. Notably, the last meeting at Warta Poznan's ground ended 0-1 in March 2024.

League Table Positions

Both teams are level on 18 points in the I Liga standings, though Warta Poznan sits 7th and LKS Lodz 8th due to goal difference. Warta Poznan has played 11 matches, winning 6 and losing 5, with 19 goals scored and 15 conceded. LKS Lodz has an identical 11-game record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, scoring 14 and conceding 11. At home, LKS Lodz is strong with 4 wins from 6, while Warta Poznan's away form shows 3 wins and 5 losses in 8 trips.

Win Probability: Warta Poznan or LKS Lodz?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the bookmakers' odds and adjusting for recent form and head-to-head records, the win probabilities are: Warta Poznan 38%, Draw 27%, LKS Lodz 35%. The odds suggest a very even match, but Warta Poznan's superior recent momentum and home advantage give them a marginal edge. LKS Lodz's historical dominance in this fixture prevents them from being a clear underdog.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a closely matched contest. The best available odds are 2.69 for a Warta Poznan home win, 3.44 for the draw, and 2.75 for an LKS Lodz away victory. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow win for the home side, but the value may lie in the draw given the tight nature of the fixture. Our Warta Poznan vs LKS Lodz prediction is a match that could be decided by a single goal.