Warta Poznan - Puszcza Niepolomice prediction 18 September 2026

The Warta Poznan vs Puszcza Niepolomice prediction for this I Liga clash on September 18, 2026, at 16:00 points to a tight contest. Warta Poznan, playing at home, are slight favorites with a 45% win probability, while the visitors have a 25% chance and the draw stands at 30%. The match is part of the Polish second-tier season and both teams are looking to climb the standings.

Team Form

Warta Poznan have been inconsistent in their last five matches, recording two wins and three losses (W-L-L-W-L). Their most recent outing was a convincing 3-0 home victory over Arka Gdynia on September 12, which should boost confidence. However, they have lost three of their previous four games, including away defeats to Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki, Miedz Legnica, and Odra Opole.

Puszcza Niepolomice have a similar recent record with two wins, one draw, and two losses (L-D-W-W-L). They beat Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala 2-0 at home on August 29 but lost 1-2 to LKS Lodz in their latest league match on September 11. Their away form includes a 0-0 draw at Pogon Siedlce, showing they can be defensively solid on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head between these sides is perfectly balanced. In two previous meetings, each team has won once. The most recent encounter was in the Ekstraklasa on November 10, 2023, when Puszcza Niepolomice won 2-0 away at Warta Poznan. The earlier match, in the II Liga on May 17, 2017, saw Warta Poznan win 2-1 away. Both games were decided by a single goal or more, with no draws recorded.

League Table Positions

In the I Liga standings, Warta Poznan currently sit 5th with 12 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 11. Their away record is strong (3 wins in 7 away games), but their home form is less clear from the available data. Puszcza Niepolomice do not appear in the top 12 of the overall table based on the provided statistics, suggesting they are positioned lower in the league.

Win Probability: Warta Poznan or Puszcza Niepolomice?

Based on bookmaker odds, team form, head-to-head history, and home advantage, we calculate the following probabilities for this match:

• Warta Poznan win: 45% – They have home support, a recent big win, and a higher league position. However, their inconsistent form and the balanced H2H keep the probability moderate.
• Draw: 30% – Both teams have shown they can be competitive, and the odds for a draw are relatively low, indicating a real possibility.
• Puszcza Niepolomice win: 25% – They have won their last away league game (2-0 at Podbeskidzie) and previously beat Warta in their last H2H, but their lower league standing and less consistent form reduce their chances.

The conclusion is that Warta Poznan are more likely to win, but the match is expected to be close.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of around 2.00 for a Warta Poznan home win, 2.30 for a draw, and 3.25 for a Puszcza Niepolomice victory. These odds reflect the home side's edge but also the uncertainty. Given the stats, a cautious prediction leans toward a low-scoring affair with Warta edging it. Based on the form and H2H, a 1-0 or 2-1 home win seems plausible, though a draw cannot be ruled out. Betting tips suggest considering both teams to score, as Warta have been involved in high-scoring games recently.