Warta Poznan - Unia Skierniewice prediction 16 October 2026

The Warta Poznan vs Unia Skierniewice prediction points towards a tightly contested I Liga match in Poland. With the game scheduled for October 16 at 17:00, our analysis gives Warta Poznan a 43% chance of winning, Unia Skierniewice a 24% chance, and the draw a 33% probability based on recent form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds.

Team Form

Warta Poznan enter this fixture with a mixed run of results, posting three wins and two losses in their last five outings. While they suffered a 2-1 away defeat to Stal Mielec on October 11, they previously enjoyed strong performances including a 3-1 friendly win at Chrobry Glogow and back-to-back home victories over Puszcza Niepolomice (3-2) and Arka Gdynia (3-0). Their only other recent home match was a narrow 1-0 loss to Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki.

Unia Skierniewice's form reflects inconsistency, with one win, two draws, and two defeats in their last five official matches. Coming off a 2-2 home draw against Bruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza on October 10, their recent away performances include a 3-1 friendly loss at Wisla Plock and league draws against Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala (1-1) and losses to Ruch Chorzow (3-1). Their sole victory was a 3-2 home win over Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki on September 13.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical meetings heavily favor Unia Skierniewice, who have won both previous encounters. In their latest clash on November 22, 2025, in the II Liga, Unia Skierniewice secured a 2-0 away victory against Warta Poznan. Earlier that season, on July 27, 2025, they triumphed 2-1 at home. With zero wins and zero draws for Warta Poznan, the head-to-head stats show a clear psychological edge for the visitors.

League Table Positions

Warta Poznan currently sit 4th in the I Liga overall standings with 15 points from 10 matches, recording 5 wins and 5 losses with 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Their home form places them outside the top 8 in the home standings, but their away record is 4th best, where they have earned 9 points from 8 away matches. Unia Skierniewice are not listed in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating they are in the lower half of the league. Their away performances include 8 goals scored and 12 conceded based on the available data.

Win Probability: Warta Poznan or Unia Skierniewice?

After a detailed assessment of all available metrics, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows: Warta Poznan win – 43%, Draw – 33%, Unia Skierniewice win – 24%. The calculation starts with the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.02, draw 2.35, away 3.25), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted these raw probabilities based on Warta Poznan's superior league standing at 4th with 15 points, their explosive home scoring (3 goals against both Puszcza Niepolomice and Arka Gdynia), offset slightly by Unia Skierniewice's perfect head-to-head record of 2 wins. While H2H favors the away side, current league dynamics and home advantage tip the balance toward a Warta Poznan win as the most likely single outcome, but with the draw carrying a significant 33% chance reflecting Unia's resilience and Warta's occasional defensive lapses.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a competitive affair with Warta Poznan priced as favorites. The best available odds in the market show a home win at 2.05, a draw at 2.35, and an away win at 3.25. Based on the stats, including Warta's stronger overall league position and home goal-scoring ability, the value might lie in backing the hosts. However, the H2H record cannot be ignored, so a cautious prediction would be a home win or a draw. Our final verdict: Warta Poznan are likely to edge this contest, but expect a close match possibly decided by a single goal.