Bohemians Dublin - Waterford United prediction 16 October 2026

Our Waterford United vs Bohemians Dublin prediction for the October 16, 2026 Premier Division match gives Bohemians Dublin a 60% win probability, with the draw at 22% and Waterford United at 18%. The bookmakers also see Bohemians as clear favorites, but Waterford's recent away record suggests a closer contest.

Team Form

Bohemians Dublin go into this fixture with a recent form line of L, W, D, W, W. The loss came in their last outing – a 0-2 home defeat to Waterford United in the FAI Cup on October 9. Before that, they beat Dundalk 2-1 away, drew 0-0 at home to Bohemians Praha 1905 in a friendly, beat Drogheda United 2-1 at home, and won 3-2 away at SD Galway. Bohemians have won three of their last four competitive matches.

Waterford United's last five results are W, L, D, D, W. The win was that 2-0 cup victory away to Bohemians. They then lost 2-3 away to Shamrock Rovers, drew 2-2 at home with Derry City, drew 1-1 at home with Dundalk, and beat Sligo Rovers 3-0 at home in the FAI Cup. Waterford have been hard to beat on the road this season – only three losses in 16 away league matches (W4 D9 L3).

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met many times. Looking at the overall head-to-head numbers, the home team has won just 11 times, there have been 10 draws, and the away team has taken 17 victories. That suggests minimal home advantage historically.

The last five meetings:

• Oct 9, 2026: Bohemians Dublin 0-2 Waterford United (FAI Cup)
• Aug 9, 2026: Waterford United 3-1 Bohemians Dublin (Premier Division)
• Apr 6, 2026: Bohemians Dublin 1-1 Waterford United (Premier Division)
• Mar 6, 2026: Waterford United 0-1 Bohemians Dublin (Premier Division)
• Jan 30, 2026: Waterford United 1-4 Bohemians Dublin (Friendly)

In the most recent encounter just a week ago, Waterford won convincingly at Bohemians' ground.

League Table Positions

Bohemians Dublin sit 3rd in the Premier Division with 59 points from 32 matches (17 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses). Waterford United are 8th with 34 points (7 wins, 13 draws, 12 losses). At home, Bohemians are 3rd with a record of 7 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses (27 points). Away from home, Waterford rank 7th in the away table with 4 wins, 9 draws, and only 3 defeats – a hard-to-beat record that explains why they've lost so few on the road.

Win Probability: Waterford United or Bohemians Dublin?

Using the odds (1.38 – 4.70 – 6.20) and removing the bookmaker margin gives a baseline implied probability of Bohemians win ~66%, draw ~19%, Waterford win ~15%. We adjust these figures to account for recent head-to-head results and Waterford's strong away form. Waterford have already won at this ground and draw regularly on the road, so we lift the draw and away win chances slightly.

Final win probabilities: Waterford United win – 18%, Draw – 22%, Bohemians Dublin win – 60%. Bohemians Dublin are the most likely winners, but the data points to a tighter match than the raw odds suggest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer 1.38 for a Bohemians Dublin victory, 4.70 for the draw, and 6.20 for a Waterford United away win. Based on all available stats, the match outcome is most likely a Bohemians Dublin win. However, Waterford's resilience away from home means a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out. Our betting tip: Bohemians to win, but with caution – consider the under 2.5 goals market given Waterford's ability to keep things tight on the road.