Kerry - Wexford FC prediction 25 September 2026

Our Kerry vs Wexford FC prediction for the First Division match on September 25, 2026, at 19:45 points to the home side as a narrow favorite. After weighing the odds, recent form, and head‑to‑head stats, Kerry has a 40% chance of winning, a draw sits at 35%, and Wexford FC stands at 25%. This Irish Republic fixture looks tight, but the numbers give the hosts a clear edge.

Team Form

Kerry's last five results show a mixed run of L, L, W, W, D. After two home defeats, they bounced back with away and home wins before a draw, suggesting stability at home. Wexford FC, on the other hand, posted W, L, W, L, L over the same period, with only one win in their last three outings and a worrying away record.

• Kerry: 0-3 vs Athlone Town (L), 0-1 vs Bray Wanderers (L), 1-0 at Longford Town (W), 3-1 vs Treaty United (W), 1-1 vs UC Dublin (D)
• Wexford FC: 3-1 vs Cobh Ramblers (W), 1-3 vs Finn Harps (L), 1-0 at Treaty United (W), 0-2 at Cork City (L), 0-2 vs Athlone Town (L)

Kerry's home form is notably stronger, with two wins and a draw in their last three at this ground, while Wexford’s away matches have produced two losses in the last two trips.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, the H2H across all meetings stands at 2 wins for Kerry, 4 draws, and 6 wins for Wexford FC. Wexford has historically dominated, but the most recent clash at this venue went Kerry's way.

• Jul 10, 2026: Wexford FC 2-2 Kerry
• May 15, 2026: Kerry 2-1 Wexford FC
• Mar 13, 2026: Wexford FC 1-1 Kerry
• Oct 10, 2025: Kerry 0-2 Wexford FC
• Jun 27, 2025: Wexford FC 4-3 Kerry

Three of the last five matches ended in draws or narrow wins, indicating close contests, but Kerry’s 2-1 home win in May gives them a psychological advantage for this fixture.

League Table Positions

Kerry is 7th with 42 points from 32 games, while Wexford FC is 8th with 40 points. The gap is small, but the home/away splits tell a different story. Kerry’s home record: 5th best in the league – 8 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 22 goals scored, 14 conceded (29 points from 16 home games). Wexford’s away record: 8th in the away table – just 3 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses, 17 goals scored, 25 conceded (only 13 points from 16 away games). This stark contrast heavily favors the home side.

Win Probability: Kerry or Wexford FC?

Using the available 1X2 odds (home 2.82, draw 2.18, away 2.98) as a base, the raw implied probabilities are roughly 32% for a Kerry win, 39% for the draw, and 29% for a Wexford win. However, adjusting for current form and the home/away split – Kerry’s strong home stand and Wexford’s dreadful away run – the realistic chances shift. We calculate Kerry has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Wexford FC has a 25% chance. Kerry is the most likely winner, but the draw remains a very possible outcome. Wexford’s hopes rest on overcoming a poor travel record that has yielded just three away wins all season.

Kerry vs Wexford FC Prediction: Odds & Betting Tips

Bookmakers are offering around 2.82 for a home win, 2.18 for the draw, and 2.98 for an away victory. These numbers reflect a tight match, with the draw priced as the single most probable result. Considering Kerry’s home advantage and Wexford’s away struggles, our prediction is a home win, but a safer betting approach could be backing Kerry in the Double Chance (1X) market or taking a draw no bet on the hosts. Based on the stats, Kerry should edge this encounter, though a low‑scoring draw cannot be ruled out.