Exmouth Town - Weymouth prediction 30 September 2026

The Exmouth Town vs Weymouth prediction for this Southern Division One clash on Sep 30, 2026, points to an away win with a 45% probability. Exmouth Town enters as the home underdog with just a 20% chance, while a draw sits at 35%. The match kicks off at 19:45 and sees two sides in contrasting form.

Team Form

Exmouth Town are struggling. Their last five matches across all competitions read L, D, W, L, L. They lost 1-3 to Thame United (FA Cup), drew 3-3 away at Thame United, beat Banbury United 2-1 at home (FA Cup), then suffered heavy defeats: 0-5 at Falmouth Town AFC in the league, and 0-2 at home to Shaftesbury Town in the FA Cup. Three losses in five games, scoring only once in those defeats, highlight serious issues at both ends.

Weymouth, in contrast, have won four of their last five (W, W, W, L, W). They thrashed Shaftesbury Town 4-1 at home, won 2-0 at Bath City in the FA Cup, edged Larkhall Athletic 3-2 away, lost 0-2 at Berkhamsted in the Southern League Premier Division, and demolished Chertsey Town 5-1 at home. The visitors arrive full of confidence, netting 14 goals in those five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head data between Exmouth Town and Weymouth. This will be the first competitive meeting, making form and league positions the primary guides.

League Table Positions

Exmouth Town sit 8th in the Southern Division One table with 60 points from 41 games (W18 D6 L17). At home they rank 7th, collecting 36 points from 21 matches (W11 D3 L7). Weymouth do not appear in the top 12 of the standings, suggesting a lower league position. However, their recent performances indicate a team on the rise.

Win Probability: Exmouth Town or Weymouth?

We base our win probability calculation on the available odds (home 3.60, draw 2.40, away 2.40) adjusted by recent form, league position, and home advantage. The inverse of the odds gives an initial market-implied probability of Exmouth Town 25%, draw 37.5%, Weymouth 37.5%. After factoring in Exmouth Town's poor form (1W-1D-3L) and Weymouth's strong run (4W-1L), while giving partial weight to the home side’s mid-table security, we shift the probabilities to: Exmouth Town win — 20%, Draw — 35%, Weymouth win — 45%. The deduction is clear: the away team is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest bookmaker odds for Exmouth Town vs Weymouth are: Home win 3.60, Draw 2.40, Away win 2.40. Bookmakers see Weymouth as the favorite, reflected in the shorter price of 2.40, identical to the draw. Exmouth Town are clear underdogs at 3.60. Based on the stats, Weymouth’s superior form makes them the sensible Exmouth Town vs Weymouth prediction pick, while the draw also holds value given the odds symmetry. A low-scoring encounter could easily end in a stalemate, but the most probable single outcome is an away win.