Widzew Lodz - Wisla Krakow prediction 16 October 2026

The Widzew Lodz vs Wisla Krakow prediction for their Ekstraklasa clash on October 16, 2026, at 19:30 points towards a narrow home advantage, with Widzew Lodz holding a 38% win probability. While league positions favor the visitors, recent form and home odds make this a tightly contested match at Stadion Widzewa.

Team Form

Widzew Lodz enter the match struggling for consistency, with a form guide showing L, D, D, D, L in their last five competitive outings. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away defeat to Piast Gliwice on October 11. Prior to that, they recorded three consecutive draws in the Ekstraklasa against Wieczysta Krakow (2-2), Legia Warszawa (1-1), and Radomiak Radom (0-0), before a 1-0 Cup loss to Korona Kielce. They have managed just two goals in their last three home league matches.

Wisla Krakow, on the other hand, have been in excellent form with four wins in their last five matches (L, W, W, W, W). The only recent blemish was a 2-0 away defeat to Legia Warszawa on October 11. Before that, they secured victories against Piast Gliwice (4-3, friendly), Dalin Myslenice (4-0, friendly), Slask Wroclaw (2-1), and Jagiellonia Bialystok (2-0), showcasing strong attacking firepower.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent head-to-head data is limited to Cup competitions, with Wisla Krakow holding a slight edge over Widzew Lodz. Out of the two recorded meetings, Wisla Krakow have one win, while the other match ended in a draw. The most recent encounter on February 28, 2024, finished 1-1 at Wisla Krakow. The last meeting at Widzew Lodz saw the hosts lose 1-3 on December 2, 2021.

League Table Positions

A look at the Ekstraklasa standings highlights the gap between the two sides. Wisla Krakow sit in 5th place with 17 points from 10 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Their away form has been less dominant, though they are ranked 1st in the home standings with a perfect record of 5 wins from 5 games. Widzew Lodz are struggling in 12th position, having collected 11 points from 10 games. The home side is yet to be ranked in the top 8 for home or away performance, and they trail their visitors by 6 points in the overall table.

Win Probability: Widzew Lodz or Wisla Krakow?

Based on odds analysis, recent form, head-to-head data, and the home advantage, the probabilities are calculated as follows: Widzew Lodz win 38%, draw 32%, Wisla Krakow win 30%. The base calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (2.42 home, 2.30 draw, 2.75 away) normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The home win probability is slightly adjusted upwards due to the venue factor, despite Widzew Lodz's poor form, because bookmakers still price them as marginal favorites. Conversely, Wisla Krakow's strong run faces a significant, negative adjustment away from home against their dominant home record. The conclusion is that Widzew Lodz are the most likely single outcome, though a draw is almost as probable as a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as an extremely open contest. The best available odds for a Widzew Lodz victory are 2.45, with Wisla Krakow priced as high as 2.80 to win away. The draw odds are peaking at 2.38, reflecting the expectation of a tight match. Based on the stats and form, the value may lie in the draw, but the home side's need for a result gives them a slight edge. The final prediction is a hard-fought draw or a narrow win for Widzew Lodz.