Willem II - Cambuur Leeuwarden prediction 24 October 2026

Willem II vs Cambuur Leeuwarden prediction for the Eredivisie match on Oct 24 at 17:45 at the Koning Willem II Stadion. Bookmakers see this as a close contest, with probabilities based on aggregated odds pointing to a slight edge for the home side, but Cambuur Leeuwarden's stronger recent form makes them a live threat to take points.

Team Form

Willem II are struggling badly. Their last five results read L, L, L, L, D. They have lost four straight, conceding 12 goals in those defeats, most recently a 3-2 loss at Sparta Rotterdam on Oct 17 and a 3-1 loss at Utrecht on Oct 11. The sole point came from a 1-1 draw at AZ Alkmaar on Sep 11.

Cambuur Leeuwarden arrive in mixed but substantially better shape: W, D, W, D, L. They won their last away match 1-0 at Zwolle on Oct 11, drew 1-1 at ADO Den Haag on Sep 19, and thrashed NEC Nijmegen 3-0 at home on Sep 12. The only defeat in this sequence was a 4-1 home loss to Twente on Aug 30.

Head-to-Head Record

The last six meetings show a clear pattern: Cambuur Leeuwarden hold the upper hand. The record is 3 away wins, 3 draws, and 0 home wins for Willem II. The most recent clash, on Dec 12, 2025, ended 1-0 to Cambuur Leeuwarden in the Eerste Divisie. Before that, a 2-2 draw on Sep 6, 2025, and a 1-1 draw in Tilburg on Feb 2, 2024. Willem II's last win in this fixture came earlier; they have failed to beat Cambuur Leeuwarden in any of these six encounters.

League Table Positions

As of the latest standings, Willem II are noticeably absent from the top 12 overall, home, and away tables in the provided data, indicating a likely position in the lower reaches of the Eredivisie. Cambuur Leeuwarden are also not present in the listed standings snippets, suggesting both sides are in the bottom half, but Cambuur's recent form gives them momentum that the table alone may not fully capture.

Win Probability: Willem II or Cambuur Leeuwarden?

Using the available pre-match 1X2 odds as the base and adjusting for home/away form and head-to-head trends, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Willem II win: 38% — home advantage and oddsmakers' slight favoritism give them the largest single share, but their four-match losing streak caps this below 40%.
• Draw: 30% — heavily supported by the H2H history (3 draws in the last 6 meetings) and the competitive odds on the draw.
• Cambuur Leeuwarden win: 32% — their superior recent form and historical edge against Willem II push their chances close to the home side's, making them a dangerous underdog.

Willem II has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Cambuur Leeuwarden has a 32% chance. Based on the stats, this is a coin-toss match where Cambuur Leeuwarden's consistent ability to avoid defeat against Willem II significantly boosts the chances of an away result.

Odds & Match Prediction

Multiple bookmakers list the 1X2 market with a tight range. The best available home win odds sit at 2.25, the lowest draw is 2.38, and away win odds are as high as 2.90. This reflects a market that sees Willem II as the marginal favorite, but the compressed odds confirm uncertainty.

Prediction: Double chance — Cambuur Leeuwarden or Draw. Given Willem II's dreadful form (four defeats in five) and Cambuur's unbeaten run in all six recent H2Hs, the value lies with the visitors to avoid defeat. The stats strongly point to at least a point for Cambuur Leeuwarden.