Sparta Rotterdam - Willem II prediction 17 October 2026

The Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II prediction for October 17, 2026, points to a home win in this Eredivisie clash at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel. Based on the latest odds, head-to-head record, and league standings, Sparta Rotterdam enters the match as the favorite with a 52% win probability, while Willem II faces an uphill battle at 20%.

Team Form

Sparta Rotterdam's recent form has been poor, with no wins in their last five matches (D, L, L, D, L). They drew 3-3 away at Go Ahead Eagles on Oct 10, lost 0-4 at home to Heerenveen on Sep 19, and suffered a 4-1 defeat at PSV Eindhoven on Sep 13. Their only points came from draws against Zwolle (2-2) and Go Ahead Eagles. Willem II is also struggling, with a form line of L, L, D, L, D. They lost 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard on Sep 19, were beaten 5-1 at Ajax on Sep 15, and drew 1-1 at AZ Alkmaar on Sep 11. Both teams are desperate for a turnaround, but Sparta's home advantage could be decisive.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record favors Sparta Rotterdam with 15 wins to Willem II's 8, and only 2 draws. The most recent meeting was a KNVB Beker match on Dec 18, 2025, where Sparta Rotterdam won 5-1 away. In the last Eredivisie encounter on Mar 2, 2025, Sparta triumphed 4-0 at home. Willem II did win a friendly 3-1 in July 2025, but competitive matches have been dominated by Sparta. This historical edge reinforces the home side's favorite status.

League Table Positions

Sparta Rotterdam sits 12th in the Eredivisie with 6 points from 8 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 4 losses), scoring 13 and conceding 20. Willem II is not in the top 12 of the standings, indicating they are in the relegation zone. The gap in league positions adds weight to the prediction that Sparta Rotterdam will have the upper hand, even though their own form is far from ideal.

Win Probability: Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II?

After analyzing the odds, form, H2H, and table, we calculate the following win probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Willem II has a 20% chance. The odds from multiple bookmakers imply a home win probability around 50%, which we adjusted slightly upward due to Sparta's home field and dominant H2H record. Willem II's lowly league position and poor away form (one draw in last five away games) reduce their chances. The draw remains a realistic outcome given both teams' struggles to secure victories.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II match show a clear favorite. The most common 1X2 odds are 1.60 for a home win, around 2.60 for the draw, and 4.20 to 4.60 for an away win. One bookmaker offers a different view with 1.58 / 4.50 / 2.24, but the market consensus strongly backs Sparta. Based on the stats, our prediction is a home win for Sparta Rotterdam, but the value may lie in the draw given both teams' recent form. A low-scoring affair is possible, with neither side showing consistent attacking threat.