Wolaita Dicha - Bahir Dar Kenema prediction 22 October 2026

The Wolaita Dicha vs Bahir Dar Kenema prediction for October 22, 2026, suggests a tight contest in the Ethiopian Premier League. Based on the latest odds and team statistics, the draw is the most likely outcome with a 50% probability, while Wolaita Dicha holds a 30% chance of winning and Bahir Dar Kenema a 20% chance.

Team Form

Wolaita Dicha come into this match with a mixed run of results: three draws, one win, and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1-1 draw away at Hadiya Hossana on October 18. Prior to that, they drew 0-0 at home to Fasil Kenema and 0-0 at home to Ethiopia Bunna. A 2-0 away win at Adama City Kenema on June 28 showed their capability, but a 1-2 home loss to Ethio Electric on June 22 highlighted defensive vulnerabilities. Overall, Wolaita Dicha have been hard to beat, with four of their last five matches ending in draws.

Bahir Dar Kenema, on the other hand, are struggling for consistency. Their last five matches have produced two draws and three losses. They lost 0-1 away at Halaba Ketema on October 16, drew 2-2 away at Ethiopia Nigd Bank on July 3, lost 0-1 at home to Cafe Sidama Bunna on June 28, drew 0-0 away at Hawassa City on June 21, and lost 0-2 at home to Wolaita Dicha in their most recent head-to-head meeting on June 16. With only two points from those five games, Bahir Dar Kenema’s form is a concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides spans 12 meetings, with Bahir Dar Kenema holding a slight edge with 4 wins to Wolaita Dicha’s 2, and 6 matches ending in draws. The most recent encounter on June 16, 2026, saw Wolaita Dicha win 2-0 away at Bahir Dar Kenema. Earlier in 2026, on January 20, they played out a 0-0 draw. In June 2025, Bahir Dar Kenema thrashed Wolaita Dicha 4-0. The high frequency of draws (50%) is a key factor for this prediction.

League Table Positions

In the Ethiopian Premier League standings, Wolaita Dicha sit 10th with 2 points from 2 draws (GF 1, GA 1). Bahir Dar Kenema are just above them in 9th with 3 points from 1 win and 1 loss (GF 1, GA 1). At home, Wolaita Dicha have played once, drawing 0-0. Bahir Dar Kenema’s away record is 1 win and 1 loss from 2 matches, scoring 1 and conceding 1. The table suggests two evenly matched teams.

Win Probability: Wolaita Dicha or Bahir Dar Kenema?

After analyzing the odds, form, and H2H data, the win probabilities are: Wolaita Dicha 30%, draw 50%, Bahir Dar Kenema 20%. The bookmakers’ odds heavily favor the draw, with average implied probability around 50%. Wolaita Dicha’s recent form (three draws in five) and the historical 50% draw rate in this fixture reinforce this. Bahir Dar Kenema’s poor away form and three losses in five matches reduce their chances. Therefore, the most likely match outcome is a draw.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match with a clear draw bias. The best available odds are: home win 3.05–3.10, draw 1.75–1.80, away win 4.15–4.33. These odds imply a draw probability of over 50% after removing the margin. Based on the stats, the prediction for Wolaita Dicha vs Bahir Dar Kenema is a low-scoring draw. Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and a 0-0 or 1-1 result fits the pattern. However, Wolaita Dicha’s recent head-to-head win gives them a slight edge if a winner emerges.