Yaracuyanos - Academia Puerto Cabello B prediction 30 September 2026

Yaracuyanos vs Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves prediction: The Segunda Division match on September 30, 2026, at 21:00 sees Yaracuyanos host Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves. According to our win probability model based on odds and form, Yaracuyanos are favorites with a 42% chance, while the draw is at 38% and an away win at 20%.

Team Form

Yaracuyanos’ recent form is mixed with two wins and three losses in their last five outings (W L L L W). They picked up a solid 3-0 away win against La Real Frontera on Sep 26 and a thrilling 4-3 home victory over Urena on Sep 2, but suffered three defeats in between, including a 0-1 home loss to Deportivo Lara and consecutive 0-1 away defeats to Atletico El Vigia and Club Atletico Barinas.

Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves are without a win in their last five matches (D L L D L). They drew 1-1 at home with Atletico El Vigia and drew 1-1 away at Barquisimeto SC, but lost to Club Atletico Barinas 2-3, Urena 2-3, and were beaten 0-3 by Zamora FC Barinas II. Their form underlines a struggle to convert draws into wins.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times in the Segunda Division. Yaracuyanos won 1-0 at home in May 2026, Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves won 1-0 at home in March 2026, and the most recent clash (August 2026) ended 0-0 at APCR’s venue. The pattern suggests a home advantage, with each side winning their home fixture and the away side failing to score in two of the three meetings.

League Table Positions

Yaracuyanos sit 4th in the overall standings with 40 points from 27 matches (W11 D7 L9). They are particularly strong at home, ranking 4th in the home table with 8 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses. Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves are 11th overall on 31 points from 28 games (W8 D7 L13). Their away record is not among the top 8 in the league, indicating a weaker travelling form.

Win Probability: Yaracuyanos or Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves?

Our probability assessment gives Yaracuyanos a 42% chance of winning, the draw a 38% probability, and Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves a 20% chance. These percentages were derived by first converting the average bookmaker odds (home ~2.18, draw ~2.24, away ~4.56) into fair probabilities, then adjusting for Yaracuyanos’ superior league position, home H2H win, and the visitors’ poor run of form. Although the raw odds implied a very tight contest between a home win and a draw, the additional factors tip the scales slightly more in favour of the hosts.

Odds & Match Prediction

Leading bookmakers price a home victory between 2.15 and 2.20, a draw between 2.20 and 2.25, and an away win between 4.33 and 4.75. These betting tips reflect the close nature of the fixture, but the market clearly sees Yaracuyanos as the team to beat.

Based on the stats, the most probable match outcome is a narrow home win. While a draw cannot be ruled out, Yaracuyanos’ home strength and APCR’s winless streak point towards a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for the hosts. Always gamble responsibly.