FK UCSA - Yarud Mariupol prediction 11 October 2026

FK UCSA vs Yarud Mariupol prediction: The Persha Liga match takes place on October 11, 2026 at 10:00. Our analysis gives the draw a 45% probability, while an away win for Yarud Mariupol stands at 33%—making the visitors slight favourites over the home side.

Team Form

FK UCSA come into this match with a disappointing recent record: one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five outings (L-D-L-W-L). Their only victory in that run was a 3-2 home success against FC Chernihiv. At home, they managed a 0-0 draw with Viktoria Nikolaevka and that win against Chernihiv, so they are tougher at their own ground.

Yarud Mariupol, on the other hand, have been more consistent. Excluding a cup defeat, their league form reads two wins and two draws in the last four. They secured a 2-1 home win over Polissya Zhytomyr 2 and a 2-0 away victory at Probiy Gorodenka, as well as draws against Nyva Ternopil (0-0) and Oleksandria (1-1). Their only recent blemish was a 0-2 cup loss to Zorya Lugansk.

Head-to-Head Record

This fixture has historically been a stalemate. All three previous H2H meetings (all in the Persha Liga) ended as draws: a 1-1 result on November 30, 2025, a 0-0 on August 17, 2025, and another scoreless draw on October 14, 2024. Neither team has yet to secure a win in this match-up.

League Table Positions

Yarud Mariupol currently sit 7th in the Persha Liga standings with 15 points from 10 matches (4W-3D-3L, goals 12:11). FK UCSA's league position is not available in the provided standings data. The away team’s solid placing and positive goal difference highlight their competitive edge this season.

Win Probability: FK UCSA or Yarud Mariupol?

We calculated the outcome probabilities using the match odds as a base and adjusting for recent form and H2H history. The draw carries the highest probability at 45%. An away win for Yarud Mariupol is rated at 33%, while the home side FK UCSA has only a 22% chance. This distribution reflects the bookmakers’ expectation of a tight contest, reinforced by three previous draws, but with a slight edge for the visitors thanks to stronger recent results and a higher league position.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 betting odds are: FK UCSA win 3.70, draw 2.02, and Yarud Mariupol win 2.58. Bookmakers clearly see the draw as the most probable outcome. Considering the data, a low-scoring draw appears the most likely result. However, given the visitors’ better form, Yarud Mariupol to win or draw on the road also holds value. Our betting tip: the stats point toward the draw, but a small stake on “Yarud Mariupol or Draw” (double chance) could be a sensible approach.