Yau Tsim Mong - Wong Tai Sin prediction 11 October 2026

The Yau Tsim Mong vs Wong Tai Sin prediction for their Second Division League clash on October 11, 2026, points to a tight contest, with Wong Tai Sin holding a slight edge. Based on our win probability model, Wong Tai Sin enters as the marginal favorite with a 40% chance of winning, while Yau Tsim Mong has a 33% probability and the draw stands at 27%. The match kicks off at 08:00.

Team Form

Yau Tsim Mong's recent performances have been poor. Their last five results show two draws and three losses (D, D, L, L, L). They have failed to win in their last five outings, conceding heavily in defeats such as a 6-1 loss to New Fair Kuitan on May 24, 2026, and a 3-0 home defeat to Tsun Tat Kui Tan/Kwok Keung on September 13, 2026. They have managed to score in only two of those five matches.

Wong Tai Sin's form is stronger, with three wins and two losses in their last five league matches (W, L, W, L, W). Most recently, they secured a 3-1 home victory against Kai Bo Tuen Mun SA on September 27, 2026. Their defeats during this run both came away from home, against Adv. Double Flower (3-1) and Kwai Tsing (1-0), indicating some vulnerability on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

Recent head-to-head meetings slightly favor Wong Tai Sin. In the last four encounters, Wong Tai Sin has won twice, Yau Tsim Mong once, with one draw. The most recent head-to-head on September 21, 2025, saw Yau Tsim Mong win 2-1 away at Wong Tai Sin. Before that, they played out a thrilling 3-3 draw on March 16, 2025. The head-to-head record stands at 2 wins for Wong Tai Sin, 1 win for Yau Tsim Mong, and 1 draw.

League Table Positions

While specific points and table gaps are not available in the provided data, the form guide and record suggest Wong Tai Sin are performing more consistently and likely sit higher in the Second Division League standings. Yau Tsim Mong's winless run indicates they are struggling near the lower end of the table, making this a crucial fixture for them to arrest their slide.

Win Probability: Yau Tsim Mong or Wong Tai Sin?

Our calculated win probability gives Yau Tsim Mong a 33% chance of winning, the draw a 27% chance, and Wong Tai Sin a 40% chance. These percentages are derived by normalizing the available bookmaker odds to remove the margin and adjusting for the teams' starkly contrasting form. Wong Tai Sin’s higher probability reflects their three wins in five games compared to Yau Tsim Mong’s zero wins, though the draw probability remains significant given Yau Tsim Mong’s two recent stalemates and Wong Tai Sin’s inconsistent road form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set tight odds for this fixture. One bookmaker lists a home win at 2.80, a draw at 2.40, and an away win at 2.80, suggesting they see this as a very balanced match with little to separate the sides. Another offers a home win at 2.40, a draw at 4.00, and an away win at 2.25, making Wong Tai Sin the slight favorite there. Based on the stats and our win probability model, the most likely match outcome is an away win for Wong Tai Sin, but a draw is a very plausible result given the opening odds. Our betting tip is to back Wong Tai Sin to win or consider the draw as a hedging option.