FK Kauno Zalgiris - Zalgiris Vilnius prediction 26 October 2026

The FK Kauno Zalgiris vs Zalgiris Vilnius prediction for the A Lyga match on October 26, 2026, at 16:45 points to a tight contest with FK Kauno Zalgiris entering as the favorite. Based on the odds, league standings, and recent head-to-head results, FK Kauno Zalgiris has a 49% win probability, Zalgiris Vilnius sits at 26%, and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

FK Kauno Zalgiris comes into this match with three wins in their last five outings (W, W, L, W, L). Their recent form includes a heavy 4-1 home defeat to Brann in the UEFA Conference League on October 22 and a 4-0 loss away to Brighton. In the A Lyga, they secured a 1-0 away win against Suduva Marijampole on October 19 and a 2-0 victory at Siauliai Futbolo Akademija on September 20.

Zalgiris Vilnius also shows three wins in their last five (W, L, L, W, W). They impressed with a dominant 4-1 home win against FK Hegelmann Litauen on October 18 and a 4-0 home victory over Suduva Marijampole on October 10. However, away defeats to Transinvest (3-0) and a friendly loss to Baltija Panevezys raise questions about their consistency on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

In the head-to-head record between these two sides, Zalgiris Vilnius holds a commanding advantage with 33 wins compared to FK Kauno Zalgiris' 10 victories, along with 13 draws. In their most recent meeting on September 16, 2026, Zalgiris Vilnius claimed a 3-2 home win. FK Kauno Zalgiris earned a 1-0 away victory on May 31, 2026, and a surprising 3-0 away win on April 5, 2026. A 0-0 draw occurred on August 2, 2026.

League Table Positions

FK Kauno Zalgiris sits at the top of the A Lyga table in 1st place with 54 points from 29 matches (15 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses). Zalgiris Vilnius is ranked 2nd with 50 points from 30 games (15 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses). At home, Zalgiris Vilnius is very strong, ranking 1st with 31 points from 16 home matches. FK Kauno Zalgiris holds the best away record in the league, sitting 1st with 26 points from 14 away games.

Win Probability: FK Kauno Zalgiris or Zalgiris Vilnius?

The calculated win probability for this match is: FK Kauno Zalgiris 49%, Draw 25%, Zalgiris Vilnius 26%. These percentages were derived by first calculating the implied probabilities from the average bookmaker odds (home 1.77, draw 2.52, away 4.06), removing the margin, and then adjusting for FK Kauno Zalgiris' league-leading position, the best away record in the division, and Zalgiris Vilnius' inconsistent recent away performances, despite having a strong historical H2H advantage.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see FK Kauno Zalgiris as the favorite with average odds around 1.77 for a home win. The draw is priced at approximately 2.52, while an away victory for Zalgiris Vilnius sits at about 4.06. Based on the stats, the best value appears to be with the home side. Our match prediction: FK Kauno Zalgiris win, potentially with both teams finding the net given the offensive capabilities both have shown this season.