Zvijezda Gradacac - Sloboda Tuzla prediction 12 September 2026

The Zvijezda Gradacac vs Sloboda Tuzla prediction points to a home-favored contest in the 1st League. RS on Sep 12 at 14:00. Based on the odds and head-to-head record, Zvijezda Gradacac enters as the clear favorite with a calculated win probability of 52%, while Sloboda Tuzla holds a 22% chance of an away victory.

Team Form

Zvijezda Gradacac's recent form shows significant struggles. Their last five results read L, W, L, L, L. The only win in that sequence was a 2-0 home victory against FK Radnik Hadzici on Aug 29. The other four matches were all defeats, including a 1-0 loss at GOSK Gabela on Sep 06. This poor run indicates a lack of consistency.

Sloboda Tuzla's form is mixed, with results of W, L, W, D, L in their last five. They secured a 4-2 home win against Tosk Tesanj on Sep 05 and a 3-0 home win over HNK Tomislav on Aug 23. However, they also suffered a 3-2 away loss at Buducnost Banovici on Aug 30. Their form is slightly better than the home side's, but they have been inconsistent on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Zvijezda Gradacac. In their last five meetings, Zvijezda Gradacac has 3 wins, there have been 2 draws, and Sloboda Tuzla has 0 wins. Notably, Zvijezda Gradacac won the most recent encounters, both by a 3-0 scoreline when playing away at Sloboda Tuzla in October 2018. The last match hosted by Zvijezda Gradacac ended in a 0-0 draw in July 2018.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in the 1st League. FBiH, though the match is listed under 1st League. RS. Specific league table positions, points, and gaps are not available in the provided data. The recent form results suggest both sides are likely in the middle or lower part of the table, given their inconsistent performances.

Win Probability: Zvijezda Gradacac or Sloboda Tuzla?

Zvijezda Gradacac has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and Sloboda Tuzla has a 22% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the provided odds (1.80 home, 3.40 draw, 3.80 away) as a base, normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. The home win probability is then adjusted upwards due to Zvijezda Gradacac's dominant head-to-head record (3 wins, 0 losses) and home advantage, despite their poor recent form. Sloboda Tuzla's away win probability is downgraded because of their historical struggles in this fixture and inconsistent away results.

Odds & Match Prediction

The bookmakers' odds are 1.80 for a Zvijezda Gradacac win, 3.40 for a draw, and 3.80 for a Sloboda Tuzla victory. These odds clearly identify the home side as the favorite. Based on the stats, the head-to-head dominance is the strongest indicator. While Zvijezda Gradacac's recent form is poor, their historical edge over Sloboda Tuzla cannot be ignored. The most likely match outcome is a narrow home win, but the draw is a significant possibility given both teams' recent struggles to find consistency.