Zwaluwen - Purmersteijn prediction 23 September 2026

This Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn prediction covers the KNVB Beker match in the Netherlands on Sep 23, 2026 at 19:00. Purmersteijn are the narrow favourites with a 36% win probability, while Zwaluwen are close behind at 35% and the draw is at 29%.

Team Form

Zwaluwen come into this cup tie with a W-L-W-L-W pattern from their last five listed matches. They beat Lisse 1-0 on Sep 19, lost 0-1 to Groene Ster on Sep 12, won 7-0 at Lierop in the KNVB Beker on Sep 2, lost 0-4 at Dongen on Aug 15, and beat Blauw Geel '38 3-0 on May 23. That gives them three wins and two losses in that span, with 11 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Purmersteijn's recent record is mixed over four listed matches: W-W-L-L. They beat ADO '20 2-1 on Sep 20 and won 3-1 at Hoogeveen on Aug 30. A 1-7 friendly loss to Volendam on Jul 5 and a 0-2 KNVB Beker defeat to Sportlust '46 in 2023 complete the data. In their last two competitive matches they have back-to-back wins.

• Zwaluwen have won three of their last five matches.
• Purmersteijn have won back-to-back competitive matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head data lists no previous meetings between these teams: Zwaluwen wins 0, draws 0, Purmersteijn wins 0. Therefore, this KNVB Beker match is treated as the first H2H meeting in the dataset, so there is no direct head-to-head trend to lean on.

Win Probability: Zwaluwen or Purmersteijn?

The mandatory win probability model uses the four available 1X2 odds sets as a baseline. After converting the average odds to implied probabilities and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the baseline was 34.1% for a Zwaluwen win, 29.5% for a draw, and 36.4% for a Purmersteijn win.

We then adjust for team form, home advantage and the single-game knockout context. Final outcome probabilities are:

• Zwaluwen win: 35%
• Draw: 29%
• Purmersteijn win: 36%

Conclusion: Purmersteijn are the more likely winner, but only by a small margin. Zwaluwen's strong 7-0 KNVB Beker result and home factor keep this very close.

Odds & Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn Prediction

The prematch 1X2 odds in the data vary by bookmaker. The listed prices include Zwaluwen 2.55, draw 2.55, Purmersteijn 2.55; Zwaluwen 2.72, draw 2.38, Purmersteijn 2.42; Zwaluwen 2.50, draw 2.50, Purmersteijn 2.40; and Zwaluwen 1.93, draw 3.78, Purmersteijn 1.71.

Across those sets, the average odds are approximately Zwaluwen 2.43, draw 2.80 and Purmersteijn 2.27. Bookmakers therefore see Purmersteijn as a slight favourite, with one set much shorter on the away side and another set pricing the draw as the most likely result.

Based on the stats, this looks like a tight cup tie. Our Zwaluwen vs Purmersteijn prediction is Purmersteijn win or draw on the 1X2 market, with Purmersteijn holding the marginal win-probability edge. Zwaluwen are dangerous at home and could force extra time if the match is level.