Zwolle - Cambuur Leeuwarden prediction 11 October 2026

Our Zwolle vs Cambuur Leeuwarden prediction for this Eredivisie clash on Oct 11, 2026, at 13:30 in the MAC³PARK stadion suggests a narrow home win for Zwolle, but with only a 40% probability. The match is set to be a tight contest between two sides struggling in the lower half of the table.

Team Form

Zwolle come into this match in poor shape, with just one win in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3). Their most recent results include a 3-0 defeat at Groningen, a humiliating 7-0 home loss to Feyenoord, a 2-2 draw at Sparta Rotterdam, a 3-1 home loss to NEC Nijmegen, and a 2-0 away win at Heerenveen. That lone victory is their only bright spot in a worrying run.

Cambuur Leeuwarden have been slightly more resilient, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five. They drew 1-1 at ADO Den Haag, beat NEC Nijmegen 3-0 at home, drew 2-2 at Telstar, lost 4-1 at home to Twente, and were beaten 5-2 by Feyenoord. Their away form shows two draws in the last two road trips, which could give them confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams heavily favours the home side. In the last 6 meetings, the home team has won 4 times and the away team 2 times, with no draws. Zwolle have won 4 of those encounters, including a 3-1 friendly win in July 2022 and a 4-3 thriller at Cambuur in February 2022. Cambuur’s last win over Zwolle was a 2-1 away victory in November 2021. The most recent competitive match was that Eredivisie clash in early 2022, which Zwolle won 4-3 away.

League Table Positions

Neither Zwolle nor Cambuur Leeuwarden feature in the top 12 of the Eredivisie standings, indicating both are battling in the lower half of the table. The exact positions are not available, but it’s clear both teams need points to climb away from danger.

Win Probability: Zwolle or Cambuur Leeuwarden?

Based on the available odds, team form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Zwolle win: 40%, draw: 30%, Cambuur Leeuwarden win: 30%. The bookmakers’ implied odds gave Zwolle around a 45% chance, but their dreadful recent form – especially the 7-0 home defeat – forces a downward adjustment. Cambuur’s two away draws and the historical home advantage in this fixture keep the probabilities close. Overall, Zwolle are the most likely winner, but the match is far from a foregone conclusion.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced Zwolle as favourites, with odds around 2.20 for a home win. The draw is offered at approximately 3.80, and an away win for Cambuur Leeuwarden at 3.50. These odds reflect the expectation that Zwolle should have the edge at home, but the high draw and away odds suggest the market sees a real chance of an upset.

Our Zwolle vs Cambuur Leeuwarden prediction: based on the stats, Zwolle are the narrow pick to win, but with low confidence. A draw or even an away win would not be surprising. For betting tips, the value might lie in the draw or Cambuur double chance, given Zwolle’s fragile form.