Necaxa - Atlas Guadalajara prediction 17 October 2026

Our Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara prediction focuses on the Liga MX clash set for October 17, 2026, at 02:00. Based on our win probability calculation, Atlas Guadalajara enters this match as the favorite with a 45% chance of winning, while Necaxa has a 30% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Necaxa is struggling significantly, with four losses and one draw in their last five matches. They suffered defeats against Club America (2-4), Atletico San Luis (1-3), Puebla (0-1), and Cruz Azul (1-3), while managing a 1-1 draw at Tigres UANL.

Atlas Guadalajara shows more resilience, recording one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five. Their recent results include a 1-1 home draw with Chivas Guadalajara, a 3-2 away win at Tijuana, a 1-1 draw with Pumas UNAM, a 2-5 loss at Toluca, and a 1-1 draw against Atlante.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings across all competitions, Atlas Guadalajara holds the edge with 2 wins to Necaxa's 1, along with 2 draws. The most recent Liga MX encounter on January 17, 2026, saw Atlas secure a 1-0 away victory at Necaxa. Prior to that, they met twice in Liga MX in 2025, with Atlas winning 3-2 at home in September and Necaxa winning 4-0 at Atlas in February. A Friendly Clubs match in December 2025 ended 5-3 to Atlas. Overall, the H2H history shows 9 away wins for Atlas, 5 home wins for Necaxa, and 10 draws.

League Table Positions

The Liga MX standings reveal a stark contrast. Atlas Guadalajara sits in 6th place with 17 points from 10 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). Necaxa, on the other hand, is outside the top 12 teams listed, indicating a much lower position in the overall table. Atlas's away form is particularly strong, ranking 2nd in the league with 12 points from 5 road games (4 wins, 1 loss). No home standings data is available for Necaxa, but their overall poor form suggests struggles in front of their own fans.

Win Probability: Necaxa or Atlas Guadalajara?

We calculate the win probability for this match as follows: Atlas Guadalajara has a 45% chance of winning, Necaxa has a 30% chance, and the draw has a 25% probability. This assessment is anchored on Atlas's superior league position, excellent away record (4 wins in 5), and recent H2H dominance. Necaxa's terrible form with four losses in five matches heavily diminishes their chances, even as the home side. The high number of historical draws (10 in H2H) keeps the draw probability significant.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific betting odds for the 1X2 market are not detailed in the available data. However, bookmakers typically align with the statistical profile: Atlas Guadalajara is widely considered the favorite. Based on the stats, our Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara prediction leans towards an away win. Atlas's strong away form, combined with Necaxa's dreadful recent run, points towards the visitors securing a positive result.