Augsburg - Union Berlin prediction 24 October 2026

The Augsburg vs Union Berlin prediction points toward a close Bundesliga contest on Oct 24 at 14:30 at WWK Arena. With home advantage and slightly stronger overall squad value, Augsburg enters as a moderate favorite. Our win probability model gives Augsburg a 38% chance, the draw 31%, and Union Berlin 31%, making this a match where any of the three outcomes is realistically on the table.

Team Form

Augsburg's recent results have been a mixed bag. In their last five matches across all competitions they have recorded three draws and two losses: L, D, D, L, D. Their most recent outing was a 4-3 away loss to SV Elversberg on Oct 17, following a 2-2 home draw against Bayern Munich on Oct 10. Earlier, a 2-2 friendly draw with Hertha Berlin, a 3-2 loss at Werder Bremen and a 2-2 home draw versus Bayer Leverkusen completed the run. Augsburg have been involved in high-scoring affairs, but defensive lapses have cost them wins.

Union Berlin's form reads D, W, W, L, L in their last five. They played a 0-0 home draw with Borussia Dortmund on Oct 17 and beat SV Elversberg 1-0 on Oct 10. A 1-0 friendly win at Rijeka is sandwiched between heavy defeats: 7-0 at Bayern Munich on Sep 18 and a 3-1 home loss to Schalke 04 on Sep 11. Union Berlin have shown they can grind out results but remain vulnerable on the road against top attacking sides.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical matchup slightly favours Augsburg. In 16 previous meetings, Augsburg have won 7, Union Berlin 4, and 5 ended draws. The most recent clash on May 16, 2026, saw Union Berlin thrash Augsburg 4-0 at home. Prior to that, Augsburg drew 1-1 at home on Jan 15, 2026, lost 2-1 at home on May 17, 2025, but won 2-0 away on Jan 15, 2025. Another 1-1 draw in Berlin on Nov 25, 2023, underlines how evenly matched these sides often are. Three of the last five H2H meetings produced under 2.5 goals.

League Table Positions

Augsburg sit 10th in the Bundesliga table with 8 points from 6 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats), scoring 16 and conceding 12. Union Berlin's exact league standing is not listed in the overall top 12, but they feature in neither the home nor away top 8, suggesting a mid-to-lower table position. Augsburg's home form is also not inside the top 8, but they have been competitive at WWK Arena, drawing with Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen already this season.

Win Probability: Augsburg or Union Berlin?

After removing the bookmaker margin from the available odds (average home 1.83, draw 2.58, away 3.72) and adjusting for recent form and home/away factors, the true probabilities are: Augsburg win: 38%, Draw: 31%, Union Berlin win: 31%. Augsburg's home pitch and slightly superior H2H record edge them ahead, but their inability to close out games (three draws in five) and Union Berlin's resilience (clean sheet vs Borussia Dortmund) make the draw a strong possibility. Union Berlin's heavy away losses to Bayern Munich temper their chances, but they are capable of taking points when not facing elite opposition.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' pre-match 1X2 odds show Augsburg as the favorite. The best available prices are around home win: 1.73 to 1.92, draw: 2.45 to 4.10, and away win: 3.50 to 3.85. The wide range on the draw (2.45–4.10) implies differing opinions among oddsmakers, but the consensus points to a tight affair. Based on the stats, Augsburg are slightly more likely to win, but the value may lie in the draw given both teams' recent sharing of points. Our prediction: a low-scoring draw or a narrow Augsburg victory, with under 2.5 goals a realistic expectation.