Simal - Baku Sporting prediction 22 October 2026

This Simal vs Baku Sporting prediction previews the Azerbaijan 1 Division clash on October 22, 2026, at 12:00 local time. Based on the data, a draw looks the most probable outcome with a 42% chance, while Simal holds a 38% win probability and Baku Sporting trails at 20%.

Team Form

Simal’s recent form is mixed, recording one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. They secured a 4-1 away win against Energetik Mingechevir on Oct 15, followed by a 1-1 home draw with Khankendi on Oct 9. Earlier, they lost 1-4 at home to Sahdag (Sep 17), drew 1-1 away at MOIK Baku (Sep 11), and fell 1-2 at home to Cabrayil FC (Sep 4).

Baku Sporting are in a severe slump, losing all of their last five outings. They went down 1-3 at home to MOIK Baku on Oct 16, lost 0-2 away to Ganjabasar FK on Oct 10, and suffered three further defeats: 0-1 home vs Sabail FC (Sep 17), 0-3 away vs PFK Simurq Zaqatala (Sep 10), and 0-3 home vs Karvan (Sep 3). The team has scored just once in these five games.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last three meetings, Baku Sporting lead with two wins to Simal’s one, with no draws. The most recent clash was a 1-0 home victory for Simal on Apr 23, 2026. Before that, Baku Sporting won 1-0 at Simal on Dec 17, 2025, and triumphed 4-1 at home against Simal on Sep 25, 2025.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1 Division standings, Simal sit 6th with 5 points from 5 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses; 8 goals scored, 9 conceded). Baku Sporting are rock bottom in 10th with 0 points, having lost all 5 games, scoring only 1 goal and conceding 12. At home, Simal are 8th, still winless (0-1-2). Baku Sporting’s away record is not in the top eight, reflecting five straight away defeats.

Win Probability: Simal or Baku Sporting?

Simal has a 38% chance of winning, the draw is at 42%, and Baku Sporting has a 20% chance. These probabilities are calculated from the bookmaker odds (home 2.62, draw 2.25, away 3.50) by removing the margin and then adjusting for the teams’ form. Baku Sporting’s terrible run of five losses, combined with Simal’s slightly better home stability, shifts the numbers in favor of the draw and the home side. Simal is more likely to win than Baku Sporting, but a draw remains the single most likely result.

Simal vs Baku Sporting Prediction & Betting Odds

The available 1X2 odds are: Simal win at 2.62, draw at 2.25, Baku Sporting win at 3.50. Bookmakers see the draw as the most probable outcome, consistent with both teams’ recent struggles. Based on the stats, a draw seems the safest call, although Simal have a decent chance to edge it. Baku Sporting’s heavy defeats make an away win the least likely scenario.