Bayer Leverkusen - VfB Stuttgart prediction 31 October 2026

The Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction for the Bundesliga clash on October 31, 2026, at 14:30 points towards a home victory. Bayer Leverkusen has a 58% chance of winning based on form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, making them the clear favorite at BayArena.

Team Form

Bayer Leverkusen come into this match in strong form, having won four of their last five matches. Their recent results include a 4–3 win at Mainz 05, a 4–0 victory at Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League, a 2–1 home win against SC Freiburg, and a 2–0 win at OFI Crete. A 3–0 defeat at TSG 1899 Hoffenheim on October 25 is the only blemish in that run. VfB Stuttgart have been less consistent, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. They beat SC Paderborn 07 2–0 away and Slovan Bratislava 3–0 in the UEFA Champions League, but lost 3–2 at home to Borussia Monchengladbach and 1–0 at Hamburger SV, with a 1–1 home draw against Atletico Madrid in between.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Bayer Leverkusen dominate this fixture with 13 wins to VfB Stuttgart's 3, alongside 4 draws. Recent meetings have been eventful. VfB Stuttgart won 3–1 at home in May 2026, but before that it was Bayer Leverkusen who triumphed 4–3 away in March 2025 and 3–2 at home in the DFB Pokal in February 2024. A 0–0 draw at BayArena in November 2024 and a 4–1 Stuttgart home win in January 2026 complete the recent picture, showing goals are almost guaranteed.

League Table Positions

Bayer Leverkusen sit 4th in the Bundesliga table with 13 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 16 and conceding 9. Their home record is perfect: 3 wins from 3, with 8 goals scored and just 1 conceded, ranking 5th on home form. VfB Stuttgart are outside the top 12 in the provided standings and their away record is not listed among the top 8. They have gathered limited points and carry a negative goal difference on the road, contrasting sharply with Leverkusen's fortress-like home form.

Win Probability: Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart?

Bayer Leverkusen has a 58% chance of winning, the draw sits at 24%, and VfB Stuttgart has an 18% chance. This probability is calculated from the best available 1X2 odds (home 1.80, draw 2.75, away 3.40), removing the bookmaker margin to get fair implied chances, then adjusting for Leverkusen's strong recent form (four wins in five), their perfect home record, Stuttgart's inconsistent away results, and the historical H2H dominance of 13 wins in 20 meetings. Leverkusen are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Bayer Leverkusen as the favorite, with best home odds around 1.80, while the draw trades at 2.80 and a VfB Stuttgart win at 3.75. Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable outcome. Given Leverkusen's attacking output at BayArena and Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, a match with over 2.5 goals looks likely, continuing the trend of high-scoring H2H clashes.