Pachuca - Cruz Azul prediction 22 October 2026

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction for the Liga MX match on October 22, 2026. Based on our analysis, Cruz Azul has a 40% chance of winning, while Pachuca has a 27% chance, and a draw is at 33%. The match kicks off at 04:10 AM local time at Estadio Hidalgo.

Team Form

Pachuca come into this match with inconsistent form: L, D, L, D, W in their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away defeat to CF Monterrey Rayados on October 19. Before that, they drew 3-3 at home to Necaxa and lost 1-0 at Santos Laguna. The only win in this sequence was a 3-0 victory at Atlante on September 12.

Cruz Azul's recent form reads W, D, D, L, L. They are coming off a stunning 5-0 home win against FC Juarez on October 18. Prior to that, they drew 3-3 away to Pumas UNAM and 3-3 at home to Toluca. The two defeats were narrow: 1-0 at CF Monterrey Rayados and 2-0 at Inter Miami CF in the Campeones Cup. That 5-0 victory gives them a clear momentum edge.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Pachuca hold a slight advantage with 15 wins to Cruz Azul's 11, plus 4 draws in 30 meetings. Looking at the last five encounters, Pachuca have won three and Cruz Azul two. The most recent clash was on April 5, 2026, when Pachuca won 2-1 away at Cruz Azul. The previous meeting at this venue ended 0-1 in favor of Cruz Azul in September 2025.

League Table Positions

Cruz Azul sit 5th in the Liga MX overall standings with 20 points from 12 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). They have scored 27 goals and conceded 21. Pachuca are outside the top 12, which indicates a significantly lower position. In home form, Pachuca are not among the top eight sides, while Cruz Azul boast the best home record in the league. Away from home, Cruz Azul are not in the top eight, but their overall quality is superior.

Win Probability: Pachuca or Cruz Azul?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head, and league positions, we assign the following win probabilities: Pachuca 27%, draw 33%, Cruz Azul 40%. The odds implied a very tight contest, with the draw slightly favored. However, Cruz Azul's 5th-place standing and their emphatic 5-0 win last time out tilt the balance in their favor. Pachuca's home advantage is offset by their poor recent home record and low league position. Therefore, Cruz Azul is the more likely winner, but a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Average bookmaker odds for the 1X2 market are: Pachuca win 3.00, draw 2.40, Cruz Azul win 2.43. This pricing suggests the draw is the most probable single outcome. Our prediction, however, leans towards an away victory for Cruz Azul based on the combination of league table, recent form, and the 5-0 momentum. A 1-2 or 1-1 scoreline appears plausible. As always, these are statistical insights, not guarantees.