FK Kapaz - FK Sumqayit prediction 20 September 2026

Our FK Sumqayit vs FK Kapaz prediction for the May 02, 2026 Premyer Liqa match sees the home side as the favorite, with a 50% win probability. The game kicks off at 12:00 local time, and FK Sumqayit will look to use their home advantage to climb the table.

Team Form

FK Sumqayit's last five results: a 3-4 home loss to Qarabag (May 22), a 1-2 away loss to Zira (May 17), a 2-1 home win over Araz Nakchivan (May 09), a 1-2 away loss to FK Kapaz (May 02), and a 2-0 away win against FK MKT Araz Imisli (Apr 25). That's two wins, three losses, with both victories coming against lower-half teams. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 10 in this period, showing defensive vulnerabilities.

FK Kapaz's last five: a 0-1 home loss to Neftchi Baku (May 23), a 0-2 away loss to Araz Nakchivan (May 15), a 1-0 away win at Sabah Baku (May 08), a 2-1 home win over FK Sumqayit (May 02), and a 0-2 away loss to Shamakhi FK (Apr 26). They have also won twice and lost three, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 6. Their away form is particularly poor, with just one win in the last four road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides stands at 11 wins for FK Sumqayit, 7 draws, and 8 wins for FK Kapaz. In the last five meetings, FK Sumqayit won twice (both 3-0 at home in August 2025 and March 2025), while FK Kapaz won three times (2-1 in May 2026, 3-0 in February 2026, and 1-0 in May 2025). The pattern is clear: the home team has won all of the last five encounters. This bodes well for FK Sumqayit as the host.

League Table Positions

In the Premyer Liqa standings, FK Sumqayit occupy 7th place with 41 points (12 wins, 5 draws, 16 losses), while FK Kapaz are 10th with 27 points (8 wins, 3 draws, 22 losses). Sumqayit have a goal difference of -4 (45 scored, 49 conceded), far superior to Kapaz's -36 (25 scored, 61 conceded). At home, Sumqayit have earned 20 points from 16 matches (6 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses), scoring 24 and conceding 28. Kapaz's away record is not detailed in the standings, but their overall poor goal difference suggests they struggle on the road.

Win Probability: FK Sumqayit or FK Kapaz?

After analyzing the available data—league positions, recent form, head-to-head trends, and home advantage—we assign the following probabilities: FK Sumqayit win 50%, draw 20%, FK Kapaz win 30%. FK Sumqayit's higher table position and the strong home bias in this fixture make them the likely winners, but their inconsistent form and Kapaz's recent victory in the reverse fixture add an element of uncertainty. The draw is the least likely outcome, given both teams' tendency to produce results. Overall, FK Sumqayit have a clear edge and are the team most likely to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently available for this match. Based on the statistical preview, our FK Sumqayit vs FK Kapaz prediction is a home win. Bettors should consider backing FK Sumqayit to win if odds appear, but always check team news closer to kick-off. Remember to gamble responsibly.