FK Sumqayit - Qabala prediction 10 October 2026

FK Sumqayit vs Qabala prediction for the Premyer Liqa match on Oct 10, 2026 at 16:30. Based on our analysis, this fixture is expected to be tightly contested, with a high probability of a draw (40%), while FK Sumqayit holds a slight edge to win at 35%, and Qabala at 25%.

Team Form

FK Sumqayit are winless in their last five outings (D,D,L,L,D). Their most recent matches include a 1-1 draw at Kapaz, a 1-1 home draw with Shamakhi FK, a 2-1 loss at Turan Tovuz, a 0-1 home defeat to Qarabag, and a 0-0 draw at Sabah Baku. With zero wins, FK Sumqayit have struggled to convert draws into victories.

Qabala have also had a poor run, recording L,L,W,D,L in their last five. They suffered a heavy 0-3 home loss to Neftchi Baku, a 1-0 defeat at Kapaz, a 2-1 home win over FK MKT Araz Imisli, a 0-0 home draw with Shamakhi FK, and a 0-1 home loss to Safa Baku. Qabala’s away form is a particular concern, having lost both away matches this season.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Qabala lead the overall head-to-head with 20 wins to FK Sumqayit's 8, and 17 draws. However, recent meetings tell a different story. In the last five encounters, FK Sumqayit are unbeaten, winning three and drawing two. The most recent fixture (Apr 19, 2026) saw FK Sumqayit win 1-0 at home. The four prior matches: a 0-0 home draw, a 2-0 away win for Sumqayit, a 1-0 away victory, and a 0-0 draw. The trend strongly favors the home side in recent clashes.

League Table Positions

Going into this match, FK Sumqayit sit 11th in the Premyer Liqa with just 2 points from 5 games (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses; goals 4:8). Qabala are 8th with 4 points from 6 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses; goals 2:7). Sumqayit have managed only 1 point from their 3 home fixtures (0W, 1D, 2L). Qabala have lost both of their away games without scoring. Both sides are near the bottom of the table, making this a relegation-scrap encounter.

Win Probability: FK Sumqayit or Qabala?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• FK Sumqayit win: 35%
• Draw: 40%
• Qabala win: 25%

This assessment is derived from bookmaker odds (average implied probabilities: home 32%, draw 41%, away 27%) and then adjusted for form, head-to-head results, and home advantage. FK Sumqayit’s recent H2H dominance (3 wins, 2 draws in last 5) boosts their chances, while both teams’ poor goal-scoring records increase the likelihood of a low-scoring stalemate. Consequently, a draw is the most probable outcome, but FK Sumqayit are slightly more likely to win if there is a victor.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre-match odds (from three providers) see the match as very open: home win around 3.00, draw as low as 1.95–3.00, away win between 3.10 and 3.60. The best available draw odds of 1.95 imply a 51% chance, confirming the draw is the favored result. Based on the stats, our prediction is that FK Sumqayit and Qabala are likely to share the points. A correct score of 1-1 or a goalless draw appears plausible given both sides' attacking struggles.