Hajduk Split - Ajax prediction 15 October 2026

Our Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction for the UEFA Conference League match on Oct 15, 2026, at 17:45 gives Ajax a 42% chance of winning, with Hajduk Split at 22% and the draw at 36%. The game takes place at Stadion Poljud in Split, and bookmakers see the Dutch side as the clear favorite.

Team Form

Hajduk Split come into this fixture with strong recent results. In their last five matches, they recorded four wins and one loss (W, L, W, W, W). They beat Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 at home on Oct 10, lost 3-0 away to Rijeka on Sep 20, and then secured three consecutive wins: 1-0 at home to NK Slaven Belupo, 2-0 away to Vardarac in the Cup, and 4-0 away to Rudes. That run shows solid attacking output and defensive resilience.

Ajax's form is more mixed. Their last five outings produced two draws, two wins, and one loss (D, D, W, W, L). They drew 1-1 at home with NEC Nijmegen on Oct 10, drew 2-2 at home with SBV Excelsior on Sep 19, thrashed Willem II 5-1 at home on Sep 15, won 5-1 away at Fortuna Sittard on Sep 12, and lost 3-1 at home to PSV Eindhoven on Sep 5. The two high-scoring wins highlight their firepower, but the draws and the loss to PSV indicate some inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history between Hajduk Split and Ajax. The two clubs have never met in a competitive fixture, making this a first-ever encounter.

League Table Positions

The UEFA Conference League standings currently show all teams with zero matches played and zero points. Therefore, league table positions offer no insight into this match.

Win Probability: Hajduk Split or Ajax?

Based on the available bookmaker odds, we calculated the implied probabilities and then adjusted for recent form and home advantage. The raw odds (home 4.50, draw 2.50, away 1.95) give implied chances of 19.6% for Hajduk Split, 35.2% for the draw, and 45.2% for Ajax after removing the margin. Factoring in Hajduk Split's strong run of four wins in five games and the home crowd at Stadion Poljud, we raise their win probability to 22%, the draw to 36%, and lower Ajax's to 42%. Ajax remains the most likely winner, but the draw is a significant possibility.

Hajduk Split vs Ajax Prediction & Odds

The best available odds show Hajduk Split at 4.50, the draw at 2.50, and an Ajax win at 1.95. These prices reflect the market's view that Ajax should win, but the draw odds are relatively short, indicating the bookmakers see a tight contest. Based on the stats, Ajax is the favorite, yet Hajduk Split's recent form and home advantage make a draw a very realistic outcome. Our final match prediction is an away win, but with caution.