Schalke 04 - Mainz 05 prediction 17 October 2026
Schalke 04
Mainz 05
FC KolnSchalke 04Schalke 04Mainz 05SC FreiburgSchalke 04Austria LustenauSchalke 04Rot-Weiss OberhausenSchalke 04Schalke 04SV ElversbergUnion BerlinSchalke 04Schalke 04Bayern MunichAugsburgSchalke 04Hallescher FCSchalke 04Schalke 04Real MadridSchalke 04AtalantaHessen KasselSchalke 04Schalke 04Fagiano OkayamaFC KharkivSchalke 04Mainz 05Werder BremenSchalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Bayer LeverkusenBorussia MonchengladbachMainz 05Mainz 05Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SVMainz 05Mainz 05SC Paderborn 07VfB 1921 KrieschowMainz 05Mainz 05BournemouthMainz 05Paris FCMainz 05UdineseMainz 05Shabab Al Ahli DubaiMainz 05Holstein KielMainz 05KaiserslauternSpfr EisbachtalMainz 05- 24A. AouchicheM
- 25N. KatiฤD
- 1L. KariusG
- 19K. KaramanM
- 17A. GantenbeinM
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 8R. GosensM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 10E. DลพekoF
- 4H. KuruรงayD
- 5T. BeckerD
- 20J. Adamu
- 39M. Wรถber
- 7Hwang Hee-Chan
- 22K. Mรผller
- 43M. Ayhan
- 33Vitalie Becker
- 38L. Vozar
- 6R. Schallenberg
- 29J. Dina Ebimbe
- 21D. da CostaD
- 19A. CaciM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 6K. SanoM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 4S. PoschD
- 10N. AmiriM
- 5E. Martel
- 11R. Kรถnigsdรถrffer
- 17B. Hollerbach
- 8P. Nebel
- 3F. Gruber
- 15L. Maloney
- 40M. Kinzig
- 30S. Widmer
- R. Nakuzola
- 24'EventP. Tietz
Schalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Schalke 04Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Schalke 04Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04Schalke 04Mainz 05Mainz 05Schalke 04Mainz 05Schalke 04| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25:6 | +19 | 17 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12:4 | +8 | 17 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:9 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16:12 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | +9 | 12 |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Mainz 05 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Augsburg | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6:16 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  FC Koln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:11 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:17 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10:13 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:18 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 3 |
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 Prediction (Oct 17)
The Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 prediction for October 17, 2026, points to a tight Bundesliga clash where Mainz 05 enters as a slight favourite with a 36% win probability. Kicking off at 14:30 local time, this match pits a Schalke side struggling for home goals against a Mainz outfit with a perfect away record this season. Based on odds, form, and head-to-head data, the most likely outcome is a narrow away win or a draw.
Team Form
Schalke 04 comes into this match unbeaten in five (W3, D2) but with clear issues in attack. Recent results:
- 0-0 vs SV Elversberg (H)
- 3-1 win at Union Berlin (A)
- 0-0 vs Bayern Munich (H)
- Two friendly wins against lower-league sides (1-0, 5-2)
At home in the Bundesliga, Schalke have yet to win or score, recording two goalless draws. On the other hand, Mainz 05โs form is mixed (W3, D1, L1), but theyโve been lethal on the road:
- 4-3 win at Borussia Mรถnchengladbach
- 1-3 loss vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H)
- 5-0 win at Hamburger SV
- 0-0 draw vs SC Paderborn (H)
- 9-0 cup win at VfB 1921 Krieschow
Mainz have scored 9 goals in two away league matches, winning both, making them the divisionโs most efficient travellers.
Head-to-Head Record
The overall H2H heavily favours Schalke 04 (12 wins, 3 draws, Mainz 1 win). The last four meetings tell a similar story:
- May 2023: Mainz 2-3 Schalke
- Nov 2022: Schalke 1-0 Mainz
- Mar 2021: Schalke 0-0 Mainz
- Nov 2020: Mainz 2-2 Schalke
Schalke are unbeaten in those four (2W, 2D) and have won the last two. This history suggests they know how to handle Mainz, but current form paints a different picture.
League Table Positions
After 5 rounds, Mainz 05 sit 8th with 7 points (2W, 1D, 2L; 13:10 goals). Schalke 04 are 12th with 5 points from 4 games (1W, 2D, 1L; 3:4 goals). Mainzโs away record is flawless: 2 wins, 6 points, 9 goals scored. Schalke have failed to score or win at home in the league (two 0-0 draws). The gap may be small, but the momentum and offensive output strongly favour the visitors.
Win Probability: Schalke 04 or Mainz 05?
Based on average bookmaker odds (home 2.78, draw 2.61, away 2.57), removing the margin gives an implied probability of Schalke win 31.8%, draw 33.8%, Mainz win 34.4%. Adjusting for recent form and home/away strength, we set the probabilities at:
- Schalke 04 win: 31%
- Draw: 33%
- Mainz 05 win: 36%
The adjustment reflects Mainzโs perfect away record (2 wins, 9 goals) and Schalkeโs home goal drought. Although Schalkeโs H2H dominance is notable, current performance gives Mainz the edge.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see a tight contest. Average odds across the market are around 2.78 for a Schalke home win, 2.61 for the draw, and 2.57 for a Mainz away victory. The narrow margin suggests no clear favourite, but the away win is the most probable single outcome. Taking into account the stats, the best betting tip is to back Mainz 05 to win or a draw no bet. A correct score of 0-1 or 1-2 would align with the data on Schalkeโs home struggles and Mainzโs scoring form away from home.
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 โ FAQ
- Who will win Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05?
- Mainz 05 is the slight favourite with a 36% chance of winning, while Schalke 04 has a 31% chance, and the draw stands at 33%. Mainzโs perfect away record in the Bundesliga (2 wins, 9 goals scored) tips the balance in their favour.
- What is the win probability for Mainz 05?
- Mainz 05 has a 36% win probability. This assessment is driven by their two convincing away victories this season and Schalkeโs inability to score at home so far.
- When is the Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 match?
- The match is on October 17, 2026, at 14:30 local time. It is a Bundesliga fixture played at Schalke 04โs home stadium in Germany.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Average bookmaker odds show a Schalke home win at 2.78, a draw at 2.61, and a Mainz away win at 2.57. These numbers indicate a very evenly matched game, with the away side marginally favoured.
- What is the head-to-head record between Schalke 04 and Mainz 05?
- Historically, Schalke 04 dominates with 12 wins to Mainz 05โs 1 victory, plus 3 draws. In their last four meetings, Schalke are unbeaten (2 wins, 2 draws), including a 2-3 away win in May 2023.