MOIK Baku - Karvan prediction 22 October 2026
MOIK Baku
KarvanMOIK BakuKarvan
Baku SportingMOIK BakuMOIK BakuEnergetik MingechevirKhankendiMOIK BakuMOIK BakuSimalMOIK BakuSahdagMOIK BakuDifai AgsuEnergetik MingechevirMOIK BakuSimalMOIK BakuMOIK BakuSahdagSafa BakuMOIK BakuMOIK BakuPFK Simurq ZaqatalaBaku SportingMOIK BakuMOIK BakuCabrayil FCSabail FCMOIK BakuMOIK BakuKarvanKarvanGanjabasar FKSabail FCKarvanKarvanPFK Simurq ZaqatalaSahdagKarvanBaku SportingKarvanFK MKT Araz ImisliKarvanKarvanQabalaTuran TovuzKarvanKarvanNeftchi BakuSabah Baku FCKarvanKarvanShamakhi FKKarvanFK KapazQarabagKarvanKarvanZiraMOIK BakuKarvanMOIK BakuKarvanKarvanMOIK BakuMOIK BakuKarvanMOIK BakuKarvanKarvanMOIK Baku| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sahdag | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14:2 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 |  Ganjabasar FK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Sabail FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | MOIK Baku | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:3 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Karvan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Simal | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Khankendi | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | -3 | 5 |
| 8 |  PFK Simurq Zaqatala | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6:14 | -8 | 4 |
| 9 |  Energetik Mingechevir | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:14 | -9 | 4 |
| 10 |  Baku Sporting | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1:12 | -11 | 0 |
MOIK Baku vs Karvan Prediction (Oct 22)
The MOIK Baku vs Karvan prediction for this Azerbaijan 1 Division clash on Oct 22 at 12:00 sees a very evenly matched contest. Based on the latest odds and recent form, the draw is the most probable result at 38%, while MOIK Baku holds a 35% win probability and Karvan trails at 27%.
Team Form
MOIK Baku come into this fixture with three wins from their last five matches, recording victories over Baku Sporting (3-1 away), Energetik Mingechevir (3-0 home) and Khankendi (2-0 away). They drew 1-1 at home with Simal and lost 0-1 at home to Sahdag. This run shows strong scoring ability, particularly away from home.
Karvan have a near-identical recent record: three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat Ganjabasar FK 2-1 at home and PFK Simurq Zaqatala 3-0, plus an impressive 3-0 away win at Baku Sporting. A 1-1 draw away at Sabail FC and a 0-2 loss at Sahdag round off their last five. Both teams enter the game with similar momentum.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last five meetings, Karvan hold the advantage with three wins to MOIK Baku's one, alongside one draw. The most recent clash on Apr 18, 2025 ended 1-1 at MOIK Baku's ground. Before that, Karvan won 3-1 at home (Feb 13, 2025) and triumphed 3-2 away in October 2024. The only MOIK Baku win in this period came in the Reserve league (3-0 away in 2023). The head-to-head data clearly points to Karvanโs upper hand, especially in 1 Division matches.
League Table Positions
Both sides are locked on 10 points from 5 games in the 1 Division. MOIK Baku sit 4th with a goal difference of +6 (9 scored, 3 conceded), while Karvan are 5th with +5 (9 scored, 4 conceded). MOIK Bakuโs home record is modest โ 4 points from 3 matches (1W,1D,1L) โ and Karvanโs away form is identical: 4 points from 3 trips (1W,1D,1L). The table highlights how evenly matched these teams are.
Win Probability: MOIK Baku or Karvan?
After combining bookmaker odds, recent form, H2H records and home advantage, the win probabilities for this match are:
- MOIK Baku win: 35%
- Draw: 38%
- Karvan win: 27%
These percentages are derived from the inverse of the odds (2.40, 2.20, 3.10), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted slightly to reflect both teamsโ nearly identical form and Karvanโs H2H edge. The conclusion: the draw holds the highest probability, but MOIK Bakuโs home status gives them a marginal advantage over Karvan if a winner emerges. Overall, the most likely outcome is a sharing of the points.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers are offering odds of 2.40 for a home win, 2.20 for the draw and 3.10 for an away victory. These prices reflect how tight this fixture is, with the draw as the favourite result. MOIK Baku are priced as the nominal favourite to win, but Karvan cannot be discounted given their strong H2H history.
Based on the stats, this is a match where a draw is the safest call. However, MOIK Bakuโs recent attacking form, combined with home advantage, might give them a narrow edge. Our MOIK Baku vs Karvan prediction is a close contest, with the draw or a slim home win being the most likely outcomes.
MOIK Baku vs Karvan โ FAQ
- Who will win MOIK Baku vs Karvan?
- Based on our probability model, the match is most likely to end in a draw (38% chance). MOIK Baku hold a 35% win probability, while Karvan have a 27% chance. Itโs a very balanced fixture with no clear favourite.
- What is the win probability for MOIK Baku?
- MOIK Baku have a 35% chance of winning, calculated using bookmaker odds of 2.40, their home form and the head-to-head record. The draw (38%) is slightly more likely than a home win.
- When is the MOIK Baku vs Karvan match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 22 at 12:00, in the Azerbaijan 1 Division. It will be played at MOIK Bakuโs home ground.
- What are the odds for MOIK Baku vs Karvan?
- The current odds show a home win at 2.40, a draw at 2.20 and an away win at 3.10. These figures make the draw the most probable single outcome and underline the evenly matched nature of the teams.
- What is the head-to-head record between MOIK Baku and Karvan?
- In their last five meetings, Karvan have won 3 times, MOIK Baku have won once, and there has been 1 draw. Karvan have scored 8 goals to MOIK Bakuโs 7 across those games.