FK MKT Araz Imisli - Neftchi Baku prediction 11 September 2026

The FK MKT Araz Imisli vs Neftchi Baku prediction for September 11, 2026, in the Azerbaijan Premyer Liqa points to an away victory. Neftchi Baku enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while the home side has just a 17% chance of pulling off an upset. The draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

FK MKT Araz Imisli

FK MKT Araz Imisli's recent form has been patchy. In their last five matches, they have recorded one win, two draws, and two losses (L, W, L, D, D). Their most recent outing was a 2-1 defeat away to Qabala on September 4. Prior to that, they managed a 1-0 win at Safa Baku and a 0-0 draw at Araz Nakchivan. The team has struggled for consistency, scoring only 3 goals in their last five games while conceding 6.

Neftchi Baku

Neftchi Baku comes into this fixture in excellent form, with four wins and just one loss in their last five matches (W, L, W, W, W). They thrashed Safa Baku 4-1 at home on September 5, and previously demolished Araz Nakchivan 5-0. Their only recent setback was a narrow 1-0 defeat at Zira. Across these five games, Neftchi scored 13 goals and conceded only 3, showcasing both attacking firepower and defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met three times in the Premyer Liqa, with the head-to-head record perfectly balanced: one win apiece and one draw. However, the most recent encounter on March 20, 2026, saw Neftchi Baku demolish FK MKT Araz Imisli 6-0 at home. The other results include a 3-2 away win for FK MKT Araz Imisli in November 2025 and a 0-0 draw in August 2025. Neftchi has scored 8 goals in these three meetings compared to FK MKT's 3, indicating a slight historical edge.

League Table Positions

In the Premyer Liqa standings, Neftchi Baku sits 4th with 9 points from 4 matches (3 wins, 1 loss), boasting a +9 goal difference (12 scored, 3 conceded). FK MKT Araz Imisli is 8th with 4 points (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses) and a -2 goal difference (3 scored, 5 conceded). Notably, FK MKT Araz Imisli has played all four of its league games away from home; this will be their first home fixture of the season. Neftchi's away record is solid: 1 win and 1 loss in two road trips.

Win Probability: FK MKT Araz Imisli or Neftchi Baku?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, the calculated win probabilities are: FK MKT Araz Imisli 17%, draw 28%, Neftchi Baku 55%. The bookmakers' average odds (home 5.94, draw 2.60, away 1.80) imply a 50.1% chance for an away win after removing the margin, but Neftchi's superior form and table standing push that figure higher. The home side's lack of home matches this season adds uncertainty, but Neftchi's attacking form makes them the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers heavily favor Neftchi Baku. The best available odds for the match are around 6.26 for a home win, 4.03 for a draw, and as low as 1.48 for an away victory, though the average across multiple bookies is 5.94 – 2.60 – 1.80. Given the stats, Neftchi Baku to win is the most probable outcome. A bet on the away side offers value, while the draw could be a tempting longshot given FK MKT Araz Imisli's two recent stalemates. Our prediction: Neftchi Baku to win.