Union Saint-Gilloise - Oud-Heverlee Leuven prediction 11 October 2026

The Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Union Saint-Gilloise prediction for the Jupiler Pro League clash on January 24, 2026, kicks off at 19:45. Union Saint-Gilloise comes into the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while Oud-Heverlee Leuven has a 20% chance and the draw is priced at 25%.

Team Form

Oud-Heverlee Leuven’s last five results (D, W, L, D, W) show inconsistency. They drew 1-1 with Olympiacos Piraeus in a friendly, thrashed Crossing Schaerbeek 7-0, lost 0-2 at home to Genk, drew 1-1 away at Sporting Charleroi, and beat Royal Antwerp 3-0 at home. Only two of those wins came in the league, and the recent friendly fixtures do little to inspire confidence.

Union Saint-Gilloise’s form reads W, W, W, D, L. They won 4-0 against FCSB, beat Diegem Sport 7-0 away, thumped Anderlecht 5-1 at home, played a goalless draw at Gent, and suffered a heavy 0-5 loss against Club Brugge. Despite that final defeat, three emphatic wins underline their attacking quality.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record stands at 10 wins for Oud-Heverlee Leuven, 14 wins for Union Saint-Gilloise, and 10 draws. In the last four meetings (all competitive), Union won 5-0 (August 2025), 1-0 (January 2025), and 2-0 (March 2024), with a 1-1 draw in November 2024. Union Saint-Gilloise has dominated this fixture recently, winning three of the last four and keeping three clean sheets.

Win Probability: Oud-Heverlee Leuven or Union Saint-Gilloise?

Based on the available data (no odds or league table provided), we have calculated the outcome probabilities using form, head-to-head record, and home advantage. Union Saint-Gilloise has a 55% chance of winning, Oud-Heverlee Leuven a 20% chance, and the draw a 25% chance. Union’s superior recent H2H dominance, their stronger goal-scoring form, and the fact that they have won three of the last four meetings against Leuven heavily tip the scales. Leuven’s home edge keeps them in the contest, but the visitors are much more likely to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not available in our data set. Our prediction is purely based on statistical analysis. Union Saint-Gilloise emerges as the most probable winner, and the data suggests backing an away victory. The match outcome is likely to be a Union win, potentially with a low-scoring margin given Leuven’s recent defensive resilience at home and Union’s occasional vulnerability on the road. Avoid betting on Leuven unless attractive handicap odds appear; the safest pick is an away win.