Karvan - PFK Simurq Zaqatala prediction 16 September 2026

The Karvan vs PFK Simurq Zaqatala prediction for the 1 Division match on Sep 16, 2026, points to a tight contest. Based on our analysis, Karvan has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and PFK Simurq Zaqatala has a 24% chance.

Team Form

Karvan's recent form is poor, with only one win in their last five matches (L, W, D, L, L). They lost 2-0 away to Sahdag on Sep 9, beat Baku Sporting 3-0 away on Sep 3, drew 1-1 with FK MKT Araz Imisli on May 24, lost 1-2 at home to Qabala on May 15, and lost 1-0 away to Turan Tovuz on May 10. PFK Simurq Zaqatala have shown slightly better form (W, D, W, L, L). They won 3-0 at home against Baku Sporting on Sep 10, drew 2-2 away at Energetik Mingechevir on Sep 4, beat Safa Baku 2-1 at home on May 22, lost 3-0 away to Baku Sporting on May 15, and lost 0-3 at home to Sabail FC on May 6.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, PFK Simurq Zaqatala hold the edge with 2 wins, Karvan have 1 win, and 2 matches ended in draws. The most recent clash on May 9, 2025, saw PFK Simurq Zaqatala win 3-0 at home. Karvan's sole victory was a 3-2 home win on Mar 7, 2025. The overall H2H record suggests a balanced but slightly away-favored history.

League Table Positions

PFK Simurq Zaqatala sit 3rd in the 1 Division table with 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses), scoring 5 goals and conceding 2. Karvan are 5th with 3 points (1 win, 0 draws, 1 loss), scoring 3 and conceding 2. PFK Simurq Zaqatala are unbeaten so far, while Karvan have already suffered one defeat.

Win Probability: Karvan or PFK Simurq Zaqatala?

Karvan has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and PFK Simurq Zaqatala has a 24% chance. These probabilities are based on the inverse of the bookmaker odds (home 1.59, draw 4.12, away 5.76) normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head results. Karvan's poor form and PFK Simurq Zaqatala's better H2H record reduce the home side's edge, making a draw a realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Karvan as the favorite with odds of 1.59 for a home win. The draw is priced at 4.12, and an away win for PFK Simurq Zaqatala at 5.76. Based on the stats, this match is likely to be closely contested. While Karvan have home advantage, their recent performances and the head-to-head record suggest PFK Simurq Zaqatala can take something from the game. Our prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow Karvan win, but the probabilities indicate no outcome is overwhelmingly likely.